Be mindful of the downside to HL coming onstream.  If ANS does it so can LP etc.

 

OSB has unlimited inputs in weed species like Aspen and is still essentially directly tied to the North American hosuing market.  Unlike timber, there is no supply/demand disequlibrium that is lasting.  So once supply and demand match back up again expect OSB to be priced at it's traditional levels, which is a bit above cost.

 

Granted, capacity has been destroyed.  And these guys cannot pay a competetive wage for trademen.  And... loggers just retired and sold thier kit.  So, it may be five years // or the slowdown of the oil sands that prevent a full balance of supply/demand.  And where there is market disquilbrium there is excess profit -- and big gains to be made.

 

I don't know if you guys read the analyst reports or not, but basically they value the firm based on EV/EBITA multiples.  It's cash flow driven and when RBC or Scotia plugs the numbers they use fairly conservative cash prices.  No news there, but in doing so it will see them always lagging a bull market.  ANS will be at $4 before they raise their price target to that; etc.

 

Finally, NBD and ANS -- I'd say that will go by the end of the year.  There are too many synergies to disregard.  And ANS is probably one of the worst managed companies in Canada.  Sit through a conference call and it makes you want to pull your hair out when mumbling Biff rambles incoherantly.  So, pooling NBD and ANS allows OSB to catch up to timber's 10 year head start in Asia and develop a market not called Japan.  ANS does hold some nice patents though like Teal (a buddy of mine worked on) and PointSix.  So, good technical skill but terrible manegement.  I wish I could trust their strategic direction more, but Brookfeild will help steward the firm in the right direction eventually.