Ciao's original post
"If they are to raise $175 via rights only at $1.25 that implies a need to issue effectively 140 M rights. Given 100 M shares o/s does that mean 1.4 rights / share for current shareholders. WIth stock at $3.10 each right is worth $1.85. At 1.4 rights / share, does that imply $2.60 value / share?!"
I think Yes to the 1.4, Yes to the $1.85 and would it be (3.10+1.85) / 2.4 or 2.06 $/share
I calculate stock price as follows with the note Plan is to also reduce the debt from $525 MM to $350MM.
Big factor is the timing of price they are using for equity (are they using $2.60, price when it was first announced or are they hoping it keeps rising and call it later? Based on last news release maybe trying for higher stock price before executing.)
With the $3.10 Ciao mentioned:
Enteprise Value = $310 mm Equity ($3.10 times 100 mm shares) plus 525 mm debt = $835 mm
New Debt will be $350 mm so Equity = $485 mm
485 / 240 mm shares = $2.02 /share post
If they use $2.60 instead of $3.10: $260 mm + $525 mm = 785 - 350 = 435 / 240 = $1.81 /share post