Depends on rebuilding of affected areas since the Japan nuclear disaster, hurricane Sandy, even areas in the south after Katrina may not have been fixed yet or rebuilt, and also depends on US housing recovery and also the insects that have destroyed lots of the timber in addition to emerging markets like China urbanizing.  So many factors will determine the ultimate outcome regardless of how much supply does get out.  Imho, I believe in certain other bullish bets that we are at a start of a 3-5 year cycle for lumber sector of which sure, some easy money has been made but, there is a lot of profits still for the taking and then up to you to decide what is a good entry and exit before it is all over.