Mistakes I've made a few
18 months ago a hedge fund, Jana, made a big effort to split Agrium into 2 companies, wholesale and retail, or some such division. I was against it because the current structure is safer and more solid long term
But I think that I made a mistake.
You see the two other main potash producers POT and MOS are trading at 16 to 19 times estimated 2015 earnings. Many retialers trade at 15 to 20 times earnings provided they have some modest growth going on.
Yet Agrium, a combo of the two, is trading at about 11 times 2015 estimated earnings. If we had the multiples of retailers OR of the fertiliser producers the share price might be $150 in USA funds
As a tool to fight Jana AGU boosted the divi which in itself was a good thing
Emotionally I prefer AGU as is but we are forfeiting $50 a share in the current share price by doing so.
So. Jana, please come back. I will be there to greet you. You will likely succeed this time