I like the direction Air Canada has taken.  However, is it not a little too early to claim full recovery ($5.00 SP)?  I am confused on some of the following points, perhaps someone could shed some light on this for me.

 

1) The huge gains from this quarter are nearly half due to forex alone.  How did this happen?  Did Air Canada change the way hedging was done?  Did they just get lucky, or is more of this expected in the future? (Change of 265 mil over 9 months compared to last year).

 

2) Operating expense included a savings of 124 mil to the benefit plan.  My impression is this is only a one time savings.

 

3)  Excluding the benefit savings, the income statements for this quarter compared with 2011 3rd show a revenue increase of 86 mil, and operating increase of 43 mil.  So the continuous increase would be 43 mil in thier most profitable quarter?

 

4)  The shareholders value is still negative due to the pension and outstanding loans.

 

In summary, the big gain was mainly due to forex, and benefit savings - both could be one time things.  Again, I'm not purposely bashing AC, I just don't see such large incomes sustained quarter over quarter.  I like what AC is doing, and the direction they are taking, I just think this is a one time blip on thier slow climbing route.

 

moe