You put up a darn good arguement and you can be very convincing at times. The trouble I have with you is that you never ever post anything negative. We are always getting one side from you. You clearly know the industry well therefore there must be some negatives about Allana becoming a producer. I can't buy into what you are saying simply because you always omit the other side of the story. It's a cred thing.
I'm just not convinced that Allana's potash will be in demand outside of Ethiopia. In Ethiopia of course there will be some demand. That market is being created but don't think for a moment that we will be selling potash in Africa at prices equal to what the Chinese and Indians will be paying Canpotex and the Russians.
The established producers have the ability to increase production and bring on brownfields to satisfy demand. They will be pumping the stuff out and selling it cheap and still making a profit. The Chinese and the Indians will be happy. And let's face it, it's more ethical to sell it cheaply and feed the worlds people. And they can still make a profit. Maybe it's karma at play here. The big boys have crushed the nuts of the small scale farmers of the world for the last decade or more with their unnatually high prices. Now things have swung the other way. It is the buyers who will be in control.
I want Allana to succeed for the people of Ethiopia but I don't see it being as profitable as longs here expect and hope. Watch for that 33% ROI from the FS to decrease dramatically.