A lot of information is circulating following the recent analyst visit to the job site. If FA is able to pull off 600 M$ of debt financing on 700 to 800 M$ CAPEX, the impact of dilution could be limited to 100 to 200 M shares issued next year at what maybe 1.00$ in the spring of 2013???

I would personnaly revised Karm estimate for phase I to:

Fact: our current planned 1m ton MOP Solution Mine will generate $500 - $250 opex levies fees and corp. tax we get a tax free holiday from Ethiopia = $250 net earnings or free cash flow per ton x 1m tons = $250m net per year / 480m shares (instead of 280m) = .52 cents per share x 10 times EPS = $5.20 per share (instead of $9.00) when ramped up to 1m tons of MOP from the Sylvinite...

See below financing information:

Also attending the site tour were three members of BNP Paribas, the bank engaged to help the company secure debt financing. We derive further comfort from our conversation with this group during our tour. Allana is among the best positioned junior potash plays currently to secure the required financing for its project. Firstly, it has one of the sector’s strongest cash positions ($58 million as of its last financial release). Secondly, it has two strong financial partners holding a combined interest near 20% that appear very committed to maintaining their pro-rata interest through to production. These include Liberty Metals and Mining (~17% interest) and International Finance Corporation – a member of the World Bank Group (~3% interest). Earlier this year, the company also announced that initial discussions with various prospective lenders have been very positive and to that point it had received non-binding indications of interest totalling over $600 million (an amount further corroborated by the BNP team) . Notably this amount represents an estimated 75% of the estimated initial capital for its potash project which exceeds the amount of debt financing Allana initially hoped for. With success in securing a strategic partner with another 20% committed to the project, it is conceivable that Allana may need to raise as little as $100 million through other outside equity sources thus increasing potential returns for Allana shareholders. Also worthy of mention, Allana is looking at ways to reduce its CAPEX requirement through means such as leasing versus buying (i.e. lease trucks rather than buy them as assumed in the PEA). It is conceivable that the final CAPEX requirement could be reduced to $700 million versus the ~$800 million in the PEA.
Now, all of that being said, if we get a bad deal on financing, current shareholders could get wiped out. The SP is down because of the uncertainty. HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD. JIMO. GLTA.