My metrics are very simple:
1. Numbers of shares - 300 million to 400 million
2. NI 43-101 Measured/Indicated/Inferred - approx 2,000 M tonnes (2 billion tonnes)
3. Nova estimate (my own low-ball estimate) - approx 500 M tonnes reserve
4. Production CAPEX - $700 M
5. Port CAPEX - $150 M
6. Production OPEX - $70 / tonne
7. After tax internal rate of return - 35%
8. Analysts have given AAA an NPV of $1.8B (comparative metrics)
9. Assume 1M tonnes production / yr for 30 yrs
So, start with 1M tonnes X $400 ton = $400M USD per yr
Minus OPEX of $70 / tonne = $330 M USD per yr
Minus $30 - $40 M USD loan repaid for CAPEX = $290 M USD per yr
Minus $90 M USD for contingency overhead expenditures to be on the safe side = $200 M USD per yr
So, lets low ball and cut the profit by another 50% = $100 M USD per yr
What value would an analyst give to a company who has 400 M outstanding shares and makes a profit of $100 M per yr ??
Now, if you add Nova production of 1M tonne/yr, double your profit to $200 M per yr. What do you do with all that free cashflow??
Allan purchased Nova for approx $1 per tonne.
Allana easily has a 100 yr mine with 2 M tonne / per yr
$8 - $9 is a very low ball share price estimate in my opinion. I'm thinking out 5-7 yrs when Allana is a producer of 2 or more M tonnes.
Karm did some numbers for the board last year and the year before and has been vilified and denigrated ever since. He doesn't do it anymore because the bashers on the board drove him away. His numbers were sound. My numbers a bit more conservative. I'm sure the bashers will have just as much fun with my metrics as well. Fortunately I have them all on ignore, so I don't care. I'm hoping for Allana to build two mines.
F.A. could have sold out long ago if that was his intention. He sees a bigger opportunity here. Lets wait and see what the BFS says. In one of the recent releases, it was mentioned there are 3 very serious groups of investors who want to invest into Allana one way or another. There are many billions of dollars at stake here. One way or another, F.A. will unlock that value.