yes I think your prodn profile looks reasonable. with 3375 for dec qtr (including the capitalised 883 from mackay and as i was reminded this is not bottom line stuff until we are probably at 5000/6000bbls), the jan end looks like a good base as long as Senlac was not closer to 2000bbls at cy end as we know Mackay has been only around 1500 all month.
this sp movement is a new way of playing stocks I reckon. drastic downward movements followed by upward bias, then good news with more upward movement if previous levels not met already. I keep buying MEI prematurely on the way down and I did it with STP...but MEI has always proved it can go to new highs while STP has to prove it can get back up prior to and/or with the news release. If MacKay is not over 2000 and Senlac Ph K is delayed in next days/weeks then this downward bias will have been somewhat justified...it is risk on right now and will be heightened regardless of how one sees the 12000 MacKay target working out simply because mgmt will have been behind the eight ball on their planned progress but GLA