Very good post - thanks for doing the work I have not yet had time to do. We never want to look at a deal with rose colored glasses and it's quite obvious that all of these warrants and options will be in the money.
So we have to look at AMW with 24 million shares fully diluted when discussing longer term share price. We also have to look at FIS with 150 mil OS fully diluted(from their latest presentation) so the official ratio we should use going forward is 6:1 when compring FIS to AMW. This implies that for every penny FIS rises pertaining to Patterson lake, AMW should rise 6 cents. It almost seems as though AMW is not as promotional as FIS from the looks of things.
Its obvious that Ben Ainsworth was very careful about this latest round - and you can bet that he picked and chose the placees and that many were left out. Probably due to politics why he slightly increased the round from $3 mil to $4. I just love it cause the Howe street types are powerless on this deal - how are the likes of Peter Brown and Reynolds gonna get papered up at low levels? LOL.
I must say that I was suprised at the volume spike when the financing was announced. Typically placees will sell thier paper if the market is above the price of the financing so long as they are able to buy at lower levels and with warrants in the financing. I think that many that sold at $1.80 - $1.90 will not get an allocation and will either have to sit on the sidelines or go back into the market and re-buy thier positions.
Good luck again to all the longs and the informative posters on this board.. lets all stick together as this story has most probably just begun... Very exciting discovery at this point.