Low end numbers:
300,000 tons/year processed
multiply gold recovery by 1.15 for plat/pal recovery
100,000 oz gold, 115,000 oz gold equivalent yearly production
Company share is about 70% of total equivalent production (75% ownership, 1.5% of total gold to Sandstorm @400$, 25% of plat/pal to sandstorm @200/100$) 80,000 oz * 1400$ = 112 million$
Yearly operating/mining costs/taxes: 95 million$ (mining costs 69 million, plus all the obligatory excessive exec compensations, bonuses etc).
Those are sort of the worst case scenario numbers I can think of. I imagine that 25% of the operating costs will fall on the COOMIGASP knocking down the assumed costs for Colossus down to ~80 million$. That leaves a little over 30 million$ net/year at 1400$ gold. I think this is approximately what the market cap reflects at the moment, incl cash holdings but excluding any potential for mine expansion.
I think those numbers severely underestimate the palladium/platinum production. I also think they are very very conservative about gold grades, with the assumption that the high grade lengths (70m @ 53g/t and 48m @ 31 g/t and 74m @ 31 g/t and 7.5m @ 4700 g/t) are quite narrow. I also think they overestimate production costs to a substantial degree, considering the very low waste ratios and the high grades/low tonnage to process.
Besides the timeframe - that full production lies almost 1 year away - I cannot see reasoning for a lower share price than where it sits now. The mine production potential is speculative but with a great degree of certainty attached, imo. I think the biggest variable is the price of gold which is subject to all sorts of interference. Not sure if 1400$ is low enough for worst case scenario as the forces that could push the POG downward could theoretically have no limit unless the paper price disconnects from the physical price. In that case too many variables enter and private army costs will blow up :)