12/20/2011 10:42:49 AM | No Recommendation | 304 reads | Post #30475196
Hi Bradford,
I'm sorry. I missed your post yesterday. I'm busy with getting ready for Christmas and finishing up some things for work.
I believe you also sent me an inbox message asking about preferred shares vs commons.
I will try and list pros and cons of each.
Commons
Pros
- Liquidity - big daily volume, easy to trade you way out of if things don't work out
- Have lots of capital gains potential since the company is trading at about 1/20 of book value -- a turnaround and signs of stability going forward are needed to get anywhere close to realizing the potential
- Big short position with little room to go down -- eventual short squeeze may happen
- Very oversold
Cons
- Risk of downwards pressure due to dilution when A series and possibly B series prefs are converted to commons
- Lots of manipulation occurring by swing traders, shorts, etc
- There has been lots of forced selling due to removal from indexes and dividend cut
- No dividend anymore
- No capital recovery in insolvency/bankruptcy scenario
Pref shares (C&D)
Pros
- Very high dividend yield due to severely depressed prices -- dividend pays off your investment in under 2 years
- Less shorting and trader induced manipulation
- If the company turns around, strong capital gains potential exists (issue value of $25)
- Slightly higher on the totem pole in the event of insolvency/bankruptcy
- Likely to be bought back by the company ahead of any common share repurchase programs
Cons
- Poor trading liquidity due to very low volumes
- Risk of dividend suspension
- Low chance of capital recovery in insolvency/bankruptcy scenario
- Less capital gains potential than commons
Pref series A are different than ordinary pref shares because of their conversion clause. Buying these is effectively like buying commons at a discount. 12.5 for 1 conversion very likely in the early to late spring. Comparing prices of commons vs series A, there is currently an arbitrage opportunity.
Series B may or may not convert to commons after June. Thus they have some characteristics of C/D shares and some of series A.
I am currently in hold mode with some commons and recently some pref C shares.
Others may have things to add. As I'm sure you'll realize, some posters are more credible than others.
Mark
Stockhouse.com: Taking
it to the street
