in 2011 was 74% (26 out of 35 wells) and even more impressive, 77% average over the last 5 years. These guys do not seem to make too many mistakes in this high risk game. For them to agree to spend the money to drill Jaguar, they must feel very confident about their prospects here since this is a very expenses well to drill. For them to look at all the data and say yes, we will spend $20M dollars (could be off by a few million here lol) they must like what they see.
When you consider they are teaming up with Repsol who has had their own share of success in the last few years, you have to think that we have some of the best minds looking at this. They certainly did not rush into spudding this getting delayed on a few occasions either. So I am sure that the hole was thought about many times before they started drilling.
When you consider this and that a hit here would give us anywhere from 10X to 30X our investment, it seems like a no brainer to me no matter what is going on behind the doors at CGX. This is still risky of course but for me and my risk capital, I find it hard to beat this one. May have to buy a few more if it gets pushed down again on Monday. Who knows how long the share price may linger here but as we get closer to TD, I cannot see this one sleeping at these levels.
I have looked hard trying to find some proof that they are something like 60 days ahead of schedule for Jaguar but not finding anything specific on this one. I believe we are still looking at late July, early August as long as everything keeps going well. If anyone has other concrete info here, would love to hear it.
The other thing is if they hit at Jaguar, how much does that derisk Eagle Deep. If they miss, how much does that hurt our chances?
This is still very risky but from a pure gambling point of view, the odds are clearly in favor of the gambler!