Daily Gas Flows (Part 1- US Storage)

(Best viewed at 14 pixel "Font Size", "Fixed Width" as set from the "My IV" Link) 
(See post 428 for footnotes & explanations of the various models) 

============US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)============= 
...Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------.......---Wkly EIA---.....Baseline 
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___ Model__Actual__(Neutral) 
08/03/12......4.2......7.1......5.7......3.0......2.0......1.5......0.5......24.0..........29..........24............40 
08/10/12......2.3......4.3......4.7......3.2......2.3......0.9......2.4......20.0..........26..........20............37 
08/17/12......7.0......9.0......8.5......5.9......5.4......5.7......5.5......47.0..........46..........47............58 
08/24/12......8.9....12.0....11.6......9.9......7.9......8.1......7.5......66.0..........67..........66............76 
08/31/12......6.0......8.1......6.5......2.0......0.7......2.1......2.5......28.0..........28..........28............50 
09/07/12......4.3......7.3......7.3......5.1......1.2......0.6......1.3......27.0..........24..........27............58 
09/14/12......5.6....10.8....11.5......9.7......9.9......9.9......9.5......67.0..........67..........67............91 
09/21/12....11.8....13.8....13.4....11.2......9.8....10.5......9.7......80.0..........80..........80............89 
09/28/12....12.1....11.4....10.4....12.0....11.6......9.8......9.7......77.0..........69..........77............83 
10/05/12....10.5....11.7....10.6....10.6......9.4....11.2......8.0......72.0..........72..........72............90 
10/12/12......7.6......9.1......8.0......6.8......6.6......6.9......6.0......51.0..........53..........51............42 
10/19/12......7.6....13.0....10.3....10.2......8.6......8.8......8.4......67.0..........67..........67............66 
10/26/12......8.8....10.2......9.1....11.3......8.5....10.0......7.1......65.0..........67..........65............75 
11/02/12......5.3......6.3......5.3......2.2......1.2......1.5.....-0.8......21.0..........18..........21............14 
11/09/12.....-1.4....-0.5.....-1.7.....-6.1.....-6.6....-8.0.....-6.2.....-30.3.........-30........................-33 
11/16/12.....-1.7......0.7....-1.5i....-7.1i....-6.6i....-5.6i....-1.8i....-23.6i........-24i.............................. 
Estimated EIA-Weekly based storage (As of 11/15/12).......3875 BCF 
...........................................................(As of 11/15/11).......3861 BCF...(14 BCF YOY Surplus) 


====Estimate of Operationally Available Working Gas Storage Capacity (in BCF)==== 
..................(Prepared from information for gas week ended 10/26/12) 
___________Data Sample___________________Capacity___Inventory__%Full___ 
Publicly available data................................................1922.............1803.........93.8 
EIA-Reported data (100% of US Storage)..................4166(e).........3908.........93.8(e) 
......(e).Estimate of Capacity calculated as 3908 / (1803/1922) = 4166 

=======================================================Past.Weekly.Runs======================================================= 
...Injecting.........Withdrawing.......Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing.......Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing.......Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing.........Injecting.... 
___2004________2004/5_______2005________2005/6________2006________2006/7_______2007________2007/8________2008________2008/9________2009_______2009/10_______2010________2010/11_______2011_______2011/12________2012___
...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................03/20..4266...............................03/19..4200.................................................................................03/16..4101
..................................................04/01..3709.................................................................................03/30..3852..................................................................................03/27..4308...............................03/26..4157.................................................................................03/23..4094
..................................................04/08..3715...............................04/07..3499...............................04/06..3855..................................................................................04/03..4315...............................04/02..4152.................................................................................03/30..4107
..................................................04/15..3683...............................04/14..3493...............................04/13..3877...............................04/11...3829r..............................04/10..4296...............................04/09..4099...............................04/08..4331...............................04/06..4130
..................................................04/22..3632...............................04/21..3494...............................04/20..3920...............................04/18...3801r..............................04/17..4262...............................04/16..4060...............................04/15..4285...............................04/13..4100
..................................................04/29..3593...............................04/28..3481......10/27..3664......04/27..3853...............................04/25...3758r..............................04/24..4189...............................04/23..4049...............................04/22..4246...............................04/20..4065
..................................................05/06..3569...............................05/05..3479......11/03..3673......05/04..3802...............................05/02...3730r..............................05/01..4143...............................04/30..4042...............................04/29..4230...............................04/27..4044
.........................11/12..3480......05/13..3550...............................05/12..3473......11/10..3680......05/11..3746......11/09..3799r.....05/09...3722r..............................05/08..4108...............................05/07..4022......11/05..4131......05/06..4208...............................05/04..4014
.........................11/19..3486......05/20..3512......11/18..3471......05/19..3467......11/17..3663......05/18..3702......11/16..3792r.....05/16...3705r..............................05/15..4086...............................05/14..4008......11/12..4138......05/13..4158...............................05/11..3989
.........................11/26..3481......05/27..3496......11/25..3474......05/26..3474......11/24..3666......05/25..3677......11/23..3792r.....05/23...3712r.....11/21..3837......05/22..4044...............................05/21..4007......11/19..4121......05/20..4127...............................05/18..3985
.........................12/03..3496......06/03..3447......12/02..3475......06/02..3466......12/01..3665......06/01..3647......11/30..3791r.....05/30...3704r.....11/28..3855......05/29..4037...............................05/28..4011......11/26..4124......05/27..4106......11/25..4085r.....05/25..4007
.........................12/10..3486......06/10..3472......12/09..3464......06/09..3457......12/08..3656......06/08..3612......12/07..3803r.....06/06...3682r.....12/05..3867......06/05..3980......12/04..4045......06/04..3992......12/03..4090......06/03..4080......12/02..4094r.....06/01..3984
.........................12/17..3485......06/17..3399......12/16..3462......06/16..3452......12/15..3642......06/15..3568......12/14..3810r.....06/13...3692r.....12/12..3854......06/12..3966......12/11..4031......06/11..3990......12/10..4111......06/10..4040......12/09..4075r.....06/08..3972
.........................12/24..3501......06/24..3400......12/23..3453......06/23..3469......12/22..3630......06/22..3574......12/21..3825r.....06/20...3663r.....12/19..3836......06/19..3949......12/18..4029......06/18..3984......12/17..4118......06/17..4019......12/16..4077r.....06/15..3966
.........................12/31..3509......07/01..3459......12/30..3453......06/30..3475......12/29..3620......06/29..3574......12/28..3829r.....06/27...3636r.....12/26..3841......06/26..3935......12/25..4055......06/25..3974......12/24..4128......06/24..3986......12/23..4062r.....06/22..3927
.........................01/07..3468......07/08..3448......01/06..3484......07/07..3463......01/05..3629......07/06..3584......01/04..3832r.....07/04...3635r.....01/02..3832......07/03..3918......01/01..4045......07/02..3963......12/31..4123......07/01..3966......12/30..4055......06/29..3920
.........................01/14..3449......07/15..3439......01/13..3469......07/14..3474......01/12..3629......07/13..3576......01/11..3824r.....07/11...3634r.....01/09..3853......07/10..3913......01/08..4074......07/09..3976......01/07..4143......07/08..3959......01/06..4060......07/06..3958
.........................01/21....n/a.......07/22..3444......01/20..3476......07/21..3475......01/19....n/a.......07/20..3579r.....01/18..3844r.....07/18...3631r.....01/16..3883......07/17..3912......01/15..4072......07/16..3973......01/14..4144......07/15..3952......01/13..4068......07/13..3961
.........................01/28..3493......07/29..3434......01/27..3453......07/28..3474......01/26..3659......07/27..3566r.....01/25..3845r.....07/25...3612r.....01/23..3910......07/24..3911......01/22..4059......07/23..3964......01/21..4138......07/22..3953......01/20..4090......07/20..3962
.........................02/04..3506......08/05..3427......02/03..3443......08/04..3461......02/02..3681......08/03..3611r.....02/01..3881r.....08/01...3600r.....01/30..3933......07/31..3914......01/29..4082......07/30..3946......01/28..4148......07/29..3945......01/27..4090......07/27..3973
.........................02/11..3504......08/12..3419......02/10..3456......08/11..3458......02/09..3703......08/10..3620r.....02/08..3838r.....08/08...3596r.....02/06..3957......08/07..3906......02/05..4079......08/06..3930......02/04..4157......08/05..3923......02/03..4086......08/03..3974
.........................02/18..3507......08/19..3413......02/17..3471......08/18..3451......02/16..3717......08/17..3613r.....02/15..3852r.....08/15...3574r.....02/13..4031......08/14..3907......02/12..4099......08/13..3915......02/11..4163......08/12..3907......02/10..4078......08/10..3994
.........................02/25..3519......08/26..3396......02/24..3459......08/25..3455......02/23..3768......08/24..3607r.....02/22..3859r.....08/22...3586r.....02/20..4090......08/21..3870......02/19..4100......08/20..3904......02/18..4175......08/19..3898......02/17..4067......08/17..4006
.........................03/04..3582......09/02..3406......03/03..3476......09/01..3465......03/02..3804......08/31..3608r.....02/29..3886r.....08/29...3589r.....02/27..4184......08/28..3872......02/26..4127......08/27..3913......02/25..4208......08/26..3899......02/24..4074......08/24..4008
.........................03/11..3621......09/09..3408......03/10..3487......09/08..3488......03/09..3867......09/07..3608r.....03/07..3878r.....09/05...3615r.....03/06..4278......09/04..3881......03/05..4191......09/03..3933......03/04..4226......09/02..3899......03/02..4089......08/31..4017
.........................03/18..3678......09/16..3411......03/17..3504......09/15..3519......03/16..3863......09/14..3639r.....03/14..3872r.....09/12...3641r.....03/13..4245......09/11..3898......03/12..4189......09/10..3956......03/11..4262......09/09..3918......03/09..4106......09/07..4031
.........................03/25..3699......09/23..3435......03/24..3523......09/22..3542......03/23..3889......09/21..3651r.....03/21..3847r.....09/19...3661r..............................09/18..3912...............................09/17..3970......03/18..4266......09/16..3926...............................09/14..4048
10/01..3421...............................09/30..3456......03/31..3513......09/29..3567...............................09/28..3667r.....03/28..3837r.....09/26...3705r..............................09/25..3934...............................09/24..4003......03/25..4287......09/23..3937...............................09/21..4059
10/08..3428...............................10/07..3459...............................10/06..3588...............................10/05..3686r.....04/04..3861r.....10/03...3719r..............................10/02..3943...............................10/01..4024......04/01..4345......09/30..3952...............................09/28..4084
10/15..3442...............................10/14..3457...............................10/13..3609...............................10/12..3700r..............................10/10...3733r..............................10/09..3969...............................10/08..4037...............................10/07..3985...............................10/05..4098
10/22..3451...............................10/21..3455...............................10/20..3628**............................10/19..3723r..............................10/17...3768r..............................10/16..3996...............................10/15..4074...............................10/14..4013...............................10/12..4131
10/29..3475...............................10/28..3469.................................................................................10/26..3751r..............................10/24...3795r..............................10/23..4025...............................10/22..4089...............................10/21..4036...............................10/19..4148
11/05..3482**............................11/04..3488.................................................................................11/02..3779r**...........................10/31...3814r..............................10/30..4028...............................10/29..4106**............................10/28..4072...............................10/26..4166
..................................................11/11..3474**................................................................................................................................11/07...3826r..............................11/06..4028.................................................................................11/04..4111r........................ 
........................................................................................................................................................................................................11/14...3828r**...........................11/13..4036.................................................................................11/11..4105r........................ 
...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11/20..4034.................................................................................11/18..4095r**..................... 
...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11/27..4050**.......................................................................................................................... 
**= Best Estimate 



====Past Weekly Runs vs EIA (Best Model Bracketed)===== 
................For Week...........Wkly....Wkly...Interpolated 
__Run____Ending______Model__ EIA__EIA.Monthly 
10/20/10..(10/15/10)..............83.......93..........95.5 
11/27/10..(10/22/10)..............67.......71..........73.5 
11/03/10..(10/29/10)..............55.......67..........69.5 
11/10/10..(11/05/10)..............14.......19..........19.2 
11/17/10..(11/12/10)................4........-5...........-5.7 
11/24/10..(11/19/10)................0........-7...........-7.7 
12/01/10..(11/26/10).............-20......-23.........-23.7 
12/08/10..(12/03/10).............-85......-89.........-90.1 
12/15/10..(12/10/10)...........-161....-164.......-165.7 
12/22/10..(12/17/10)...........-188....-184.......-185.7 
12/29/10..(12/24/10)...........-142....-136.......-137.7 
01/05/11..(12/31/10)...........-128....-135.......-136.7 
01/12/11..(01/07/11)...........-146....-138.......-138.2 
01/19/11..(01/14/11)...........-236....-243.......-243.2 
01/26/11..(01/21/11)...........-169....-164 (A).-164.2 
02/02/11..(01/28/11)...........-184....-189.......-189.2 
02/09/11..(02/04/11)...........-217....-209.......-210.0 
02/16/11..(02/11/11)...........-267....-233.......-234.6 
02/23/11..(02/18/11).............-86......-81.........-82.6 
03/02/11..(02/25/11).............-83......-85.........-86.6 
03/09/11..(03/04/11).............-71......-71.........-73.7 
03/16/11..(03/11/11).............-41......-56.........-59.6 
03/23/11..(03/18/11)...............-7........-6...........-9.6 
03/30/11..(03/25/11)............... 6.......12............8.4 
04/06/11..(04/01/11).............-49......-45.........-47.2 
04/13/11..(04/08/11)..............24.......28..........34.1 
04/20/11..(04/15/11)..............42.......47..........53.1 
04/27/11..(04/22/11)..............19.......31..........37.1 
05/04/11..(04/29/11)..............55.......72..........78.1 
05/11/11..(05/06/11)..............60.......70..........73.4 
05/18/11..(05/13/11)..............80.......92..........94.9 
05/25/11..(05/20/11)..............89.....105........107.9 
06/01/11..(05/27/11)..............79.......83..........85.9 
06/08/11..(06/03/11)..............68.......80 
06/15/11..(06/10/11)..............64.......69 
06/22/11..(06/17/11)..............90.......98 
06/29/11..(06/24/11)..............71.......78 
07/06/11..(07/01/11)..............84.......95 
07/13/11..(07/08/11)..............81.......84 
07/20/11..(07/15/11)..............51.......60 
07/27/11..(07/22/11)..............30.......43 
08/03/11..(07/29/11)..............30.......44 
08/10/11..(08/05/11)..............25.......25 
08/17/11..(08/12/11)..............50.......50 
08/24/11..(08/19/11)..............83.......73 
08/31/11..(08/26/11)..............62.......55 
09/07/11..(09/02/11)..............69.......64 
09/14/11..(09/09/11)..............92.......87 
09/21/11..(09/16/11)..............95.......89 
09/28/11..(09/23/11)............117.....111 
10/05/11..(09/30/11)..............96.......97 
10/12/11..(10/07/11)............109.....112 
10/19/11..(10/14/11)............104.....103 
10/26/11..(10/21/11)..............90.......92 
11/02/11..(10/28/11)..............68.......78 
11/08/11..(11/04/11)..............30.......37 
11/15/11..(11/11/11)..............22.......12 
11/22/11..(11/18/11)..............18.........9 
11/30/11..(11/25/11)..............12........-1 
12/07/11..(12/02/11).............-10......-20 
12/14/11..(12/09/11).............-94....-102 
12/21/11..(12/16/11).............-95....-100 
12/27/11..(12/23/11).............-82......-81..(early run) 
01/25/12..(12/23/11).............-85......-81..(post-vacation backrun) 
01/25/12..(12/30/11).............-74......-76..(post-vacation backrun) 
01/25/12..(01/06/12)...........-105......-95..(post-vacation backrun) 
01/25/12..(01/13/12).............-86......-87..(post-vacation backrun) 
01/25/12..(01/20/12)...........-192....-192 
02/01/12..(01/27/12)...........-125....-132 
02/08/12..(02/03/12).............-81......-78 
02/14/12..(02/10/12)...........-115....-127 
02/22/12..(02/17/12)...........-177....-166 
02/29/12..(02/24/12).............-96......-82 
03/07/12..(03/02/12).............-91......-80 
03/14/12..(03/09/12).............-68......-64 
03/21/12..(03/16/12)..............14.......11 
03/28/12..(03/23/12)..............56.......50 R 
04/04/12..(03/30/12)..............33.......42 
04/11/12..(04/06/12)..............11.......16 R (B) 
04/18/12..(04/13/12)..............24.......23 R 
04/25/12..(04/20/12)..............35.......47 
04/28/12..(04/27/12)..............19.9....28..(Friday-night run)(before leaving for vacation) 
04/28/12..(04/27/12)..............23.0....28..(Friday-night Subjective "Best guess") 
05/09/12..(05/04/12)..............25.......30 
05/16/12..(05/11/12)..............47.......61 
05/23/12..(05/18/12)..............66.......77 
05/30/12..(05/25/12)..............62.......71 
06/06/12..(06/01/12)..............52.......62 

............................................Old.......New 
.........................................4-Year....52-Wk 
................For Week...........Wkly......Wkly.....Wkly..Interpolated 
__Run____Ending______Model__ Model__ EIA__EIA.Monthly 
06/12/12..(06/08/12)..........{66.4}......73.4........67 
06/20/12..(06/15/12)..........{66.1}......67.7........62 
06/29/12..(06/22/12)..........{56.0}......60.0........57 

................For Week...........Wkly....Wkly...Interpolated 
__Run____Ending______Model__ EIA__EIA.Monthly 
07/05/12..(06/29/12)..............40.......39 
07/12/12..(07/06/12)..............n/a......33 
07/19/12..(07/13/12)..............28.......28 
07/25/12..(07/20/12)..............25.......26 
08/01/12..(07/27/12)..............21.......28 
08/06/12..(08/03/12)..............30.......24 
08/15/12..(08/10/12)..............26.......20 
08/21/12..(08/17/12)..............47.......47 
08/28/12..(08/24/12)..............69.......66 
09/05/12..(08/31/12)..............27.......28 
09/12/12..(09/07/12)..............22.......27 
09/19/12..(09/14/12)..............66.......67 
09/26/12..(09/21/12)..............73.......80 
10/03/12..(09/28/12)..............66.......77 
10/11/12..(10/05/12)..............71.......72 
10/16/12..(10/12/12)..............52.......51 
10/23/12..(10/19/12)..............66.......67 
10/31/12..(10/26/12)..............67.......65 
11/07/12..(11/02/12)..............18.......21 
11/14/12..(11/09/12).............-30.......?? 

Notes (On above): 
......(A) For purposes of analysis, the 10 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been removed from the EIA's originally-reported 174 BCF withdrawal estimate. 
......(B) For purposes of analysis, the 10 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been re-added to the EIA's originally-reported 8 BCF injection estimate. 



Weekly Models: 
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions. 
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the 
...................................... methodology employed by the EIA, using a 4-year rolling history of the 
.......................................EIA's weekly data. 

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from my own Daily & Weekly 
..............................models, the EIA's Weekly & Monthly actuals, and the old AGA & Derived EIA 
..............................weeklies. Initially, my own model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) 
..............................are presented; followed by the EIA weekly actuals (Interpolated by the daily 
..............................model), followed by the EIA monthly actuals (Interpolated successively by way 
..............................of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered 
..............................reclassifications & adjustments removed. 

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report 
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary 
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.