One of the things that I've been keenly watching over the last year is Greece - and the PIIGS in general.
It is looking more and more like Greece will default around the 3rd week of March. I'm not really interested in a discussion about Greece defaulting but rather what we can expect PM's to do as a result of such an event - short, and medium term.
I think that there is a good possibility that in the short term, we see a PM crash as European (and American) banks and hedgefunds need cash to cover their losses and are forced to sell.... well, everything. In such an event, where would buyers be found? This naturally raises the question of what then happens to Aurcana?
Part of the problem that you don't hear about in the MSM is that there is more than 5X the amount of Greek bonds in Greek CDS. Nobody really knows who has the counter-party risk but to me it is quite clear - Greek default = the banks are F@cked and European Sovereigns are F@cked.
So.....what happens to PM's then?