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Robry825 Daily Gas Flows- Comments
factsfinder2
12/11/2012 3:22:55 PM | No Recommendation | 163 reads  | Post #31895188
 

 

                                           Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

 
.....NATGAS: Mild week last week combined with soft economics (see economics section below) gives us a 
.....-6 BCF (draw) estimate (most weeklies are in) with Capacity/Gas-flow posting suggesting a -10 BCF (draw). 

.....Baseline last week was for a -10 BCF (Draw), suggesting a faint sliver of bullishness. 

.....Last weeks miss (as was the prior weeks) was split between regions but the whole of the misses served only 
.....to feed the skew between EIA data and Capacity/Gas-flow modeling. 



.....OIL: Will not have anything to comment on for a while as patterns that were being watched broke down and have yet to re-emerge. The 
.....raw data will continue to be posted on the chance that someone else (with better insight than I) may be able to see something in it. 

Natgas scheduling to refineries... 
...................................Scheduling 
...................Day........... (MMCF) 
...............11/10/12.(w)......415 
...............11/11/12.(w)......452 
...............11/12/12............468 
...............11/13/12............467 
...............11/14/12............441 
...............11/15/12............425 
...............11/16/12............416 

...............11/17/12.(w)......387 
...............11/18/12.(w)......383 
...............11/19/12............377 
...............11/20/12............381 
...............11/21/12............371 
...............11/22/12............390 
...............11/23/12............392 

...............11/24/12.(w)......391 
...............11/25/12.(w)......390 
...............11/26/12............369 
...............11/27/12............410 
...............11/28/12............403 
...............11/29/12............423 
...............11/30/12............423 

...............12/01/12.(w)......424r 
...............12/02/12.(w)......419i 
...............12/03/12............395 
...............12/04/12............385 
...............12/05/12............389 
...............12/06/12............397 
...............12/07/12............425i 

...............12/08/12.(w)......428i 
...............12/09/12.(w)......428i 
...............12/10/12............429i 

...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday) 



.....ECONOMICS & POLITICS: Last weeks "Some stress is starting to bleed into food-group scheduling" post 
.....gets amplified this week as food-group scheduling takes off and industrial scheduling continues to soften... as 
.....government failed to resolve the fiscal-cliff mess in a timely manor (December 1st) and US society starts to 
.....adjust for multiple worst-case scenarios simultaniously. 

.....Gas-flows are now showing stress accross-the-board in most models... Consumer (paperboard), Factory 
.....(Industrial scheduling), Steel, Copper, Building Supplies, Chemical, lumber... 

.....Cement scheduling, which was at multiyear highs in November, flirts (for the first 10 days of December) 
.....with multi-year lows. Food, Agriculture & livestock scheduling are all bearishly strengthening. 

.....We need some good news here very quickly, . 

Todays economic numbers... 

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption 
...............10/06/12.............122.1.................142.7 
...............10/13/12.............122.3.................142.2 
...............10/20/12.............122.2.................144.4 
...............10/27/12.............121.3.................147.3 
...............11/03/12.............120.5.................151.7 
...............11/10/12.............118.9.................150.2 
...............11/17/12.............118.3.................151.0 
...............11/24/12.............117.3.................152.6 
...............12/01/12.............117.4.................151.7 
...............12/08/12.............117.5.................153.8 

.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily 
................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food 
...............11/09/12.............119.1.......149.9..........1.908.......28.21......39785 
...............11/10/12.............118.9.......150.2..........1.921.......36.61......40975 
...............11/11/12.............118.8.......150.3..........1.954.......34.91......40761 
...............11/12/12.............118.6.......150.4..........1.947.......34.91......39535 
...............11/13/12.............118.6.......149.8..........1.983.......32.49......40327 
...............11/14/12.............118.6.......150.0..........1.985.......35.40......39251 
...............11/15/12.............118.5.......150.4..........1.908.......35.40......41097 
...............11/16/12.............118.5.......150.8..........1.926.......35.40......39977 
...............11/17/12.............118.3.......151.0..........1.902.......35.80......40017 
...............11/18/12.............118.1.......150.9..........1.900.......35.80......39878 
...............11/19/12.............117.9.......150.9..........1.894.......35.80......38856 
...............11/20/12.............117.8.......151.4..........1.995.......37.59......40139 
...............11/21/12.............117.7.......151.7..........1.970.......37.14......40270 
...............11/22/12.............117.5.......152.2..........1.939.......37.62......42633.........(Thanksgiving) 
...............11/23/12.............117.4.......152.5..........1.934.......37.62......40860 
...............11/24/12.............117.4.......152.6..........1.929.......37.62......41288 
...............11/25/12.............117.3.......152.2..........1.930.......37.62......42376 
...............11/26/12.............117.2.......151.9..........1.913.......38.60......42459r 
...............11/27/12.............117.1.......152.0..........2.008.......36.44......46886 
...............11/28/12.............117.1.......151.9..........1.986.......41.93.......42081 
...............11/29/12.............117.2.......152.4..........2.018.......43.00.......37278 
...............11/30/12.............117.4.......152.5..........2.027.......38.84.......41033 
...............12/01/12.............117.4.......151.7..........1.965.......35.76.......49882 
...............12/02/12.............117.5.......151.1..........1.975.......35.76.......49964 
...............12/03/12.............117.5.......152.0..........1.929.......35.76.......48667 
...............12/04/12.............117.5.......152.9..........1.878.......35.76.......48742 
...............12/05/12.............117.5.......153.7..........1.867.......35.76.......53391 
...............12/06/12.............117.5.......154.4..........1.848.......35.76.......53390i 
...............12/07/12.............117.5.......154.6..........1.908i......35.76i......51947i 
...............12/08/12.............117.5.......153.8..........1.938i......35.86i......52284 
...............12/09/12.............117.5i......153.4i..........1.943i......35.86i......51170i 
...............12/10/12................n/a...........n/a..............n/a........35.76i......48177i 

 
  

 

 
 
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