Do not dispair if holding a position, as 95% of entries one cannot often trigger an entry at the lowest price week over week. I have held back 50% of capital to take trade here, before or after current report.
Two weeks out looks promising for upside, Jan far far better. Far more upside potential than is understood due to current slide. Markets overshoot for a reason, deal with current, not your early entry.
The opportunity here is to trade at reduced risk, although not guaranteed. Upside numbers rolled 50% higher through Sept to Nov so potential is apparent. The risk is reduced because contributing factors are compelling short term verses prior winter.
For HNU even if you are in at $13.95 it is a must to plan A/C here or reduce, your call. I would choose to buy, bid $12.44 and $11.84 for post report possible (set bid prior to report), with the intent to double your position but lower A/C. Thereafter, follow week over week overlap and judge current risk. For certain I would hold any current position and add a portion before or after Thursday report.
I trade the higher volatility UGAZ, high risk, higher return. My A/C entry plan was on UGAZ which I bought for a fourth time today at $23.73 on incresed weighted entry. Building slow to 1800 into trade. My prior A/C was $26.20, reduced here to $24.55.
I am buying if it dips to $22, no hesitation, 1000 shares. I will secure a lower average cost on last bid of $21.87 = A/C due to weighted entry. I hold back capital for 1000 shares buying commitment to trade, entering on upside move.
My plan, made weeks prior is for 3800 shares. I need the fill at $21.87. That may not happen, I may have to pay higher, reality of bottom fishing. If UGAZ stays within 6% on Thursday low today $23.62 I will be a buyer. on a week over week pricing. Once all in downside policy is reduce on a 7% loss benchmark below last entry. Upside on trade if held is minimum expectation of 33%, reasonable, on UGAZ will be $50% to 90% - 5 weeks not impossible.
Many a trader has looked at a price take off and "wished they were on the trade" or was shook out only to sit back and watch it rebound much higher. With NG many on bull boards can be in this situation. Panic is the worse way to trade, enticed in to upside too early after a run exhaustion or worse, frozen on trade unable to make a plan. This is no more than a volatile on range commodity, nothing more. The downsize gap will be closed out within two weeks. It is what markets do, unless the underlying engine to the trade is so over-powering one just stays on trend.
GLTA. Good wins both ways on NG.