I do agree ride a move to the end. However, NG such a volatile stock also offers good % gains -- if you sell into the surging highs intra week and if bias remains -rebuy. Production short term will over supply. - most intra day swings can be 4-9% on UGAZ / DGAZ. (3% 7% HNU). HNU should advance next week, new high. What is possible is two weeks of colder weather. Why $15.50 is POSSIBLE. -- $13.50 Fri to Tuesday requires just extra 15% = one cold week or bullish report -voila $15.50. So be patient to "load up the truck" with a bet. No need yet.
Jan 12-2012:.........Once breached as cold moves to the south of the Ohio River, which is going to happen, a massive change should occur and could last for 3 - 4 weeks. The last EIA report was positive but showed weak demand in Southwest. That should correct this week on Thursday report. Recently the South West USA has turned very cold for the region. One could expect a solid bullish EIA report this Thursday. This could be counterbalanced somewhat by weather the prior week on data from the mid plains to NE region of USA which experienced warmer days on above normal weather. Now it appears an upside of 35% -is doable and 55% possible HNU price from the Wednesday $10.00 low. An extended cold 4 week forward (if hit) can create the overshoot, of unexpected 80% gains on this trade. (HNU high Thursday reaches 31.5% above $10).
We need not guesses. Possible requires a model projection supported by facts of current conditions. PS - sold at $24.25, missed top but current price is $23.72!. Patience!
GLTA Cheers Manxcan