Is it time to cut my losses and move on, or is there something truly worth keeping with this company?
tot, the more you come to understand this company the stronger your convictions will become. Your uncertainty is a symptom of not understanding the potential rewards vs the limited risks GPD enjoys relative to other junior explorers.
I did my own NPV8 calculation with the following assumptions:
Old Leach producing 2014
- 180,000 ounces present in leach pad
- 30% avg recovery rate
- avg grade n/a
- 20,000 oz avg production per year
- 3 years
- cash cost $580 per oz (very high est, we will only need to crush and restack the ore)
- 60,000 total ounces produced
Old Leach Expansion producing 2014
- 5.5M tonnes
- 10,000 tpd, 150 mining days, 150 leaching days
- Years to reach capacity ~ 3.6 years
- 70% avg recovery rate
- 0.85gpt avg grade
- 25,300 oz avg production per year
- 3.6 years
- cash cost of $14 per tonne (using VIT's PFS numbers, current BFS shows cash cost per tonne <$12)
- cash cost $770 per oz (again very high estimate)
- 143,000 mineable ounces
- 105,000 total ounces produced
In-Valley Leach Pad producing 2015
- 36.5M tonnes
- 40,000 tpd, 150 mining days, 150 leaching days
- Years to reach capacity ~ 6.1 years
- 70% avg recovery rate
- 0.85gpt avg grade
- 115,000 oz avg production per year
- 6.1 yrs
- cash cost of $14 per tonne (using VIT's PFS numbers, current BFS shows cash cost per tonne <$12)
- cash cost $681per oz
- 1,000,000 mineable ounces
- 700,000 total ounces produced
| 1650 Au | Oz Produced | Net Earnings |
| Year 2014 (30M CAPEX) | 48,694.52 | 47,679,297.85 |
| Year 2015 (150M CAPEX) | 163,762.92 | 153,063,129.25 |
| Year 2016 | 163,762.92 | 153,063,129.25 |
| Year 2017 | 134,198.08 | 122,947,803.30 |
| Year 2018 | 115,068.40 | 105,383,831.40 |
| Year 2019 | 115,068.40 | 105,383,831.40 |
| Year 2020 | 115,068.40 | 105,383,831.40 |
| Year 2021 | 9,589.03 | 8,781,985.95 |
Before Tax NPV8 @ $1650 Au = $411,600,000
IRR = 55%
| $2100 Au | Oz Produced | Net Earnings |
| Year 2014 (30M CAPEX) | 48,694.52 | 69,591,831.81 |
| Year 2015 (150M CAPEX) | 163,762.92 | 226,625,799.05 |
| Year 2016 | 163,762.92 | 226,625,799.05 |
| Year 2017 | 134,198.08 | 183,206,295.11 |
| Year 2018 | 115,068.40 | 157,033,967.24 |
| Year 2019 | 115,068.40 | 157,033,967.24 |
| Year 2020 | 115,068.40 | 157,033,967.24 |
| Year 2021 | 9,589.03 | 13,086,163.94 |
Before Tax NPV8 @ $2100 Au = $697,800,000
IRR = 80%
I'm not an accountant so take these calculations with a heavy dose of salt, but IMHO the stock prices is so disconnected from the value of just Brewery Creek (forget royalties, future production from Grew Creek which should be up and running by the end of 2016, any premium for our leading land package, etc), that there is a reasonable margin of safety in the stocks current price.