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I hope everyone had a great holiday and that 2006 is starting out well for everyone. I have decided to scale the Futures report back to two issues a week on Tuesday's and Friday's. On Tuesdays I will try to present my best intelligence of what to expect from the weekly storage reports. Also on Tuesdays I will offer my best analysis of demand data and outstanding issues that might affect the spot and futures market for oil and gas in Canada and the US. Friday's I will report the US inventory data and when it is available the Canadian as well, also I will relate the rig count data. Of course in Friday's I will also be addressing any differences between expectations and what was actually reported by the Department of Energy. After the semester of teaching at SAIT is done I will reconsider whether I should be making this a daily report. But enough about such housekeeping issues and on to the first futures report of 2006:
Monday NOAA released the heating and cooling degree day count for last week reporting 1 cooling degree days and 157 gas weighted heating degree days. This compares with 0 and 205 respectively reported for the week before. Using my three week regression model this suggests a draw between 55 and 65 BCF. Robry's 10 week regression model is finally being reported again and it suggests a 54BCF draw, while his daily pipeline receipts figures suggest a 21BCF draw and his weekly numbers suggest 23BCF of draw using his 2003 model and 8BCF of draw using his 2005 model.
The latest US department of the Interior Minerals Management Service Report from Thursday last week shows 411K bbl/d of crude production still shut in and 2.0bcf/d of NG production still shut in after Katrina and Rita. This shows little change from the report a week earlier. Their next update will be tomorrow.
Current weather forecasts from NOAA for the 6-10 and 8-14 day time frames are for warmer than average weather forecast over the vast majority of the US.
NG prices today were off 3.8% averaged across the front six months on the Nymex, WTI was mixed but averaged a 0.3% increase across the front six months.
AECO spot price yesterday was $9.54 per standardized thousand cubic feet, while the differential with Henry Hub was up to $1.87. The Winter strip was down to $9.84, next years summer strip was down to $10.21, while the full year 2006-2007 strip was down to $10.53.
Yesterday saw the February contract for Brent crude trade up $2.37 to $61.35
Yesterday saw the OPEC basket trade up $1.74 to $53.47
At the end of the outcry session on the Nymex today NG last traded with Feb over 10.10, Mar over 10.20, Apr over 9.80, May over 9.70, Jun - Jul over 9.80, Aug - Sep over 9.90, Oct over 10.00, Nov over 10.50, Dec over 11.00, Jan 2007 over 11.50, Feb 2007 over 11.60, Mar 2007 over 11.20, Apr 2007 over 9.40, May 2007 - Jun 2007 over 9.20, Jul 2007 - Aug 2007 over 9.30, Sep 2007 - Oct 2007 over 9.40, Nov 2007 over 9.90, Dec 2007 over 10.50, Jan 2008 - Feb 2008 over 10.80, Mar 2008 over 10.70, Apr 2008 over 8.70, May 2008 over 8.50, Jun 2008 over 8.40, Jul 2008 - Aug 2008 over 8.50, Sep 2008 over 8.60, Oct 2008 over 8.70, Nov 2008 over 9.20, Dec 2008 over 9.70, Jan 2009 - Feb 2009 over 10.10, Mar 2009 over 9.80, Apr 2009 over 8.00, May 2009 - Jun 2009 over 7.80, Jul 2009 - Sep 2009 over 7.90, Oct 2009 over 8.00, Nov 2009 over 8.50, Dec 2009 over 9.00, Jan 2010 - Feb 2010 over 9.40, Mar 2010 over 9.20, Apr 2010 over 7.50, May 2010 - Jun 2010 over 7.30, Jul 2010 - Oct 2010 over 7.40, Nov 2010 over 8.00, Dec 2010 over 8.50, Jan 2011 over 8.90, Feb 2011 over 8.80, Mar 2011 over 8.50, Apr 2011 over 7.10, May 2011 - Jun 2011 over 6.90, Jul 2011 - Oct 2011 over 7.00, Nov 2011 over 7.50, Dec 2011 over 8.00.
At the end of the outcry session on the Nymex today WTI last traded with Feb over 63.00, Mar - Apr over 64.00, May - Nov over 65.00, Dec - Sep 2007 over 66.00, Oct 2007 - Apr 2008 over 65.00, May 2008 - Jun 2008 over 64.00, Dec 2008 over 63.00, Dec 2009 over 62.00, Dec 2010 - Dec 2011 over 60.00, Dec 2012 over 59.00.
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This report is a promotional activity of NADRECK Corp. all information presented here is collected on a best efforts basis and should not be relied on for accuracy. Any opinions and analysis included in this report are those of Jim Grant independently and do not reflect the opinions, projections, or analysis of any persons or organizations with which NADRECK Corp. has a business relationship. Any comments from Jim Grant about PEYTO Energy Trust will be made on the PEYTO Energy Trust website in their Investor Q and A section.
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