RE: What kind of hit do you anticipate, X2...X4? [S] Excellent question, I wish I had a straight answer. There are so many variables: 1. NI 43-101 ore reserves. Could be anywhere from 800,000 to 3,500,000 ozs so using Histakes cheat sheet, once the announcement is made, you look for the number on the chart. Of course I believe that contract mining and milling will be the preferred way to go; but the bigger the ore reserve the higher the probability that the feasibility will lead to a major financing for on site infrastructure. My latest math suggests the Black Fox mine and HM/Holloway Mill to be the most logical "solution". Regretably, sometimes it never works out the most logical way. 2. What the POG is at the time of the announcement: The higher the POG the higher the value of the stock. I suspect that management is "playing for time" to maximize their market potential as the POG increases. I believe that they (should) do a financing once they have "delivered the goods" to complete the exploration of Black Fox and Huizopa. To at least give the impression that Apollo is "business as usual". I also believe that management would like to "get back to their knitting" and that is developing a resource in to a feasibility stage project, hopefully from the lessons learned as a result of their Nevada and Montanna properties. 3. Other footnotes attached to the ore reserves news release. Always look to see what (non material items) is slipped into a (material) news release. Like reading the MD&A in the Annual reports. 4. How the JV or take over offer unfolds Cash, shares cash & shares, or NO takers also being an option. 5. Who the potential JV or takeover partner is A big name like Goldcorp, Kinross or Newmont would attract a plethora of investors versus some lesser know names who might even have a better offer. 5. If Apollo "goes it alone". If Apollo goes it alone, then Histakes (albeit) ultra conservative scenario would kick in. Where there could be major dilution with potential share consolidation down the road. Not to mention their record at Nevada and Montanna "may not be rewarded by the market". 6. What the experts at Yahoo are saying: Excellent Move by: longislandman1973 (40/M/LONG ISLAND) Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 04/06/06 04:49 pm Msg: 15857 of 15922 Like I said weeks ago 5.00 soon !!A real deal here under 1.00 Go longssssss ----------------------------------------------------- I'm Out by: darkside_beckons Long-Term Sentiment: Sell 04/07/06 12:13 pm Msg: 15880 of 15922 As regular posters here know, I was pounding the table for all to buy AGT under .20. I finished taking my profits today. $250K in total. Thanks for the great investment advice from bogfit, and the great entertainment. The BK countdown was a blast! I could be wrong, but I'll take my $250K and run. Best of luck to all longs. I hope AGT screams to $5 for you. ----------------------------------------------------------- Re: question of the day..... by: tj03a (36/M/LI/NY) 04/07/06 12:50 pm Msg: 15881 of 15922 I'll have to play stick in the mud with this one. As long as the price of gold stays under $590 I don't see AGT climbing much higher today. Once gold breaks $600 though AGT will easily tear through $1.00 ----------------------------------------------------------- closing price by: thunderbolt1450 Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 04/07/06 05:55 pm Msg: 15900 of 15922 Could not make 85 cents today, no where near 90 cents. Back to the charts and try again. Despite a bad day for most stocks and gold down 7 dollars, AGT held up well showing some strength. This is a good sign. The Canada ore report update is coming soon. If you have to sell, at least sell into the strength of the reaction of the report. Next stop; CLKTF. -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7. What the experts here on Stockhouse are saying SUBJECT: RE: Price by end of 2006 Posted By: histakes Post Time: 1/8/2006 20:48 I have had some interesting discussions with a few investment reps from various brokerage houses and each agrees that American listed and based gold companies are going to be the greatest beneficiaries of new American gold stock investors entering the market. There are many reasons as to why it will be advantageous. After discussing Apollo Gold we came up with a year end (FV) APG price to gold model. The pricing model includes increasing the reserves (March 1) at Black Fox from 457,100 oz to 800,000 oz. If the feasibility reports greater than 800,000 oz, then an adjustment adding $.08 - $.21 to the share price per 100,000 oz. over 800,000 oz. is included in the model. At the end of 2006 if gold is: $400 – APG - $.90 - $1.12 $500 – APG - $1.12 - $1.40 $600 – APG - $1.34 - $1.68 $700 - APG – $1.61 - $2.02 $800 – APG - $1.94 – $2.02 $900 – APG - $2.32 - $2.90 I hope this helps. SUBJECT: RE: Black Fox's Reserves- WOW! Posted By: histakes Post Time: 2/11/2006 13:39 I don't know about Apollo Gold selling for $10 a share. However, if gold sells for a $1000 an ounce then it is possible based on a buying frenzied scenario, but if not definitely a $1 - $1.5 a share is still in the cards. Our (FV) 12 months APG price to gold model is what we are sticking to for now. The pricing model includes increasing the reserves (March) at Black Fox from 457,100 oz to 800,000 oz. If the 43-101 reports greater than 800,000 oz, then an adjustment will be added to the model. $400 – APG - $.90 - $1.12 $500 – APG - $1.12 - $1.40 $600 – APG - $1.34 - $1.68 $700 - APG – $1.61 - $2.02 $800 – APG - $1.94 – $2.02 $900 – APG - $2.32 - $2.90 SUBJECT: Black Fox - 800,000 ounces Posted By: histakes Post Time: 2/17/2006 11:54 First, we prefer not to use the price to earnings value on mining companies. Rather we use the net present value as an important tool. We look for what the company's share price will be worth in terms of future cash flow. The cash flow is then discounted at 10% for each year in the future. In Apollo’s case, Black Fox is the main subject for our future price model. Success at Huizopa and Montana Tunnels is not included in the valuation. Assumptions: Black Fox Reserves in March: 800,000 ounces Annual production: 100,000/yr Capital cost: $85,000,000 - $105,000,000 Cash cost: $240 - $275 per ounce Average gold price $450 -$480 Shares outstanding after financing: 200,000,000 - 300,000,000 In our model we use conservative assumptions for each category. The average price to cash flow per share for intermediate miners is 25 times. We use 17.5 times the future cash flow of Black Fox. The assumption for shares outstanding may seem high, but this is assuming Apollo structures a high percentage of equity financing. This is a worst case scenario as most likely there will be a portion of debt financing which will reduce the outstanding shares. The 43-101 reserve update in March could push Apollo well over a $1.00 a share so the equity deal is in our opinion conservative. The model allows you to change the numbers as you see as fair. In any case, our opinion is Apollo Gold is severely undervalued. If Richard Russell’s comments about Black Fox’s reserves hold true then $2.00 - $3.00 a share shouldn’t come as a shock. Black Fox breakdown: 100,000 ounces/yr ($480 POG - $275 CASH COST) Annual cash flow: $20,500,000 Cash flow per share: $20,500,000/300,000,000 = $0.07 Price to cash flow per share: 17.5($0.07) = $1.20 I hope this helps. Please ask if more clarification is required. Hope this Helps Cheers Stanley