So, here we are in 2012! I made some predictions at the beginning of last year, and it's time to see how well I called it. Here is the original, with my current notes:
2011 will be a sideways market overall, with lots of volatility. Every little crisis around the world will impact activity. Yeh, pretty much. I think we basically ended up where we started.
Europe isn't fixed yet, and might be on the road to recovery by year end - or not. Not, but may be headed in the right direction - slowly......
Canada benefits by rising commodities prices and a stable, if not growing economy. Growth will be slow though, without some breakthrough that is not apparent at this time. I'm very concerned about the increased deficit and debt. This will erode our previously strong economic position if not brought under control. Harpernomics does not seem to be headed that way, though. Despite strong cuts to our social safety net, and other programs out of favour with Harper's ideology, the deficit keeps growing. It's like Mulroney all over again, only worse......
The US leaps and plummets. They have to fix their debt/deficit nightmare (they wont), and address the huge frauds in their financial system (they might start). Not so much leaping, although their markets have come back some. Real estate still a nightmare, employment horrific, gov dysfunctional, little progress on fixing the CRIMEX or regulating derivitives of derivatives, no conclusions to the myriad investigations into market manipulation, etc.....
South America starts to take off, lots of opportunities there. India and China are huge, but struggling with internal legal, economic, and social issues. Got this one!
Russia quietly starts booming, but has unresolved political problems. North Korea plays brinksman games to gain concessions (and does), which causes stress to Japan and S. Korea - and those invested therein. I sure didn't see the end of Kim Jong Il (that's "il"). Thought he would just keep annoying, and annoying, and annoying...... Got Russia pegged pretty well, though.
Africa and the Middle East are what they are, and nothing will change significantly in the next year. Africa is showing some signs of becoming less volatile, but half the countries there could be up in arms against each other, or themselves, at any moment. The "Arab Spring" revolts were a surprise. I'm afraid they may have changed dictatorship for theocracy, though....
REITs and commodities rule the markets on the upside in Canada. REITs yes, commodities volatile. I think the upside will be in the first and last quarters of 2012 for resource companies.
All in, I'm pretty happy with my calls, with a couple of big surprises. Not a great year, but passable. Strength in the miners would help in 2012, but with the manipulation evident in the futures markets, who knows. My core REITs keep dripping, and there were a couple of nice buying ops last year. Hoping for the same this year. I'm maintaining about 70-80% REITs, with the rest in producing junior miners that my DD has green lighted. AUN (Aurcana) will have the Shafter mine running 2nd Q this year, the others are a bit longer term, and I am happy with my positions going forward.
