What if you would sit back and think about how investors psychologically react to your investment. Since fear and greed are almost always involved in making trades taking a look at the boards over all emotion towards the Share Price would most likely help in the long run. If people are talking about short term goals for the company chances are there going to bail and if it triggers others to panic or triggers stop losses you could lose a good percentage right away. If most are talking about long term goals such as a company heading into production it could indicate more longs. Also looking at the market overall can help estimate how much people would risk on speculative stocks. Since everyone is human and thinks there is a huge psychological aspect to investing, Why not capitalize on that?