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Hyperinflation Warning for U.S.
Hyperinflation Warning for U.S.
84 Reads | 0 Comments | Posted on June 10, 2011
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An article by a good friend. I value his perspective.
By now, most informed readers have at least a general understanding of the concept of
. It is the exponential increase in the prices of goods, directly caused by the collapse of the currency in which those prices are denominated. Thus, when the United Nations issued a warning
of a possible “crisis of confidence” and/or “collapse” of the U.S. dollar, this was also a direct warning of the imminent risk of hyperinflation in the U.S. economy.
There is nothing surprising here. Many prominent voices have been warning of the increasing inevitability of U.S. hyperinflation, beginning with
economist John Williams, nearly a decade ago. However, when a myopic institution like the UN is now openly warning of the “looming risk” of the collapse of the U.S. dollar, then clearly the parameters have become desperate, indeed.
While many have some general familiarity with the concept of hyperinflation, few yet comprehend that the unique characteristics of the U.S. economy first make it more vulnerable to hyperinflation than any other developed economy; and second, would make any episode of hyperinflation inside the U.S. far
than should the same fate befall any other developed economy.
This “uniqueness” centers on the fact that (for the moment) the U.S. dollar is still the “reserve currency” of the global economy: the money used for most international transactions. This status has been a tremendous boon to the U.S. economy for many decades. The artificial demand created for U.S. dollars because of its extensive use in global commerce pushed-up the value of the dollar beyond its actual worth.
This, in turn, produced two huge benefits for the U.S. economy. It produced an artificially high standard of living for U.S. citizens, and provided U.S. corporations with the added purchasing power for their capital which allowed these corporations to scoop-up foreign corporations at what amounted to discount prices.
Obviously the U.S. government has totally abused the privilege (and responsibility) of managing the world’s reserve currency. Decades of grossly excessive money-printing (especially
) have caused an enormous glut of dollars in the world. It is this reckless behavior which is responsible for the global movement (now well underway) to phase-out the dollar as “reserve currency”. Indeed, various bilateral trade agreements and “currency swaps” have already reduced global demand for dollars by an amount in excess of $1 trillion per year.
The combination of grossly excessive supply and rapidly falling demand is enough by itself to put the U.S. dollar (and U.S. economy) on a “collision course” with hyperinflation. However, this is literally only half the story when we view the pending collapse of the dollar. The key dynamic here is the
(today) of this debauched banker-paper.
Prior to 1971, when the world still retained a quasi-gold standard, there was at least some connection or “anchor” for the value of the dollar to a hard asset: gold. As a mechanism for “price stability”, it is literally impossible for hyperinflation to ever occur in an economy with a gold-backed currency.
To understand this principle, it is first necessary to appreciate that hyperinflation is a “crisis of confidence” even more than a reaction to economic fundamentals. What turns “high inflation” (even crippling inflation) into genuine “hyperinflation” is the ensuing panic of the domestic population to rid themselves of this banker-paper as quickly as possible. It is this stampede to rid themselves of their currency (by buying-up goods) which simultaneously causes the value of the currency to plummet (from lack of demand) while prices for goods skyrocket due to over-consumption.
This brings us to one of the elementary truths of all “fiat currencies” (i.e. “money” backed by nothing). Their “value” (indeed their survival) is wholly dependent on the continued confidence of the ‘sheep’ using this currency in their commerce. An un-backed paper currency is nothing but an (unsecured) “IOU” of the government issuing the currency. Indeed, all of our banker-paper is now created via debt.
Because there is no intrinsic value in our paper currencies (now that the gold standard is gone), bankers have tried to fake “value” in these currencies, by attaching debt to the creation of each and every new dollar. In other words, the U.S. dollar went from being a unit of currency which carried “value” to one which carried “obligation”.
The difference between a currency which has
versus one which only implies
is literally identical to the difference between a 1-oz gold coin, and an IOU to deliver 1 ounce of gold. The former has intrinsic value, while the value of the latter is only as good as its promise to deliver.
We can now see clearly the enormous difference between real (gold-backed) “money” and the bankers’ fiat paper. The value of the former is not dependent in any way on the “confidence” of the holder, while the value of the latter is totally dependent upon the confidence of the holder – and his/her trust in “the promise to pay”.
This obvious fact alone should have been enough to make all of our governments shun the bankers’ fiat-paper, since it is common knowledge that the success of any/all scams is also dependent on maintaining the
of the chumps being scammed. Indeed, the colloquialism “con man” is simply shortened from “confidence man”, since well over a century ago, our society was well aware that the primary tool of all scammers is the creation of the illusion of confidence in whatever scheme/scam they are hatching.
Thus it is with all fiat currencies: they are nothing but the “confidence scams” of bankers. These scraps of (worthless) paper are “money” backed by nothing. And more than a thousand years of “history” with such paper has taught us another lesson as well:
such fiat currencies must return to their actual value – zero.
From the moment that the bankers seduced our governments into severing the final link with the gold standard, it was always inevitable that these fiat currencies would plunge to zero. The only “variable” was the amount of time it would take for the chumps to lose confidence in this banker-scam. In that respect, the bankers are their own worst enemies.
As I alluded to previously, the bankers are responsible for the
grossly excessive printing
of these paper currencies – driving them toward zero on the basis of “dilution” alone. However, even more rapidly, they have been driving our currencies toward zero with the insane explosion in sovereign debt – especially in the U.S.
Professor Lawrence Kotlikoff has calculated the
combined debts and obligations
of the U.S. government at over
. With the “unfunded liabilities” of Social Security and Medicare amounting to roughly $100 trillion alone (before we begin looking at all the other debts/liabilities), obviously this is at least a reasonable “ballpark figure”. Equally obvious: it is utterly impossible for the U.S.’s puny $14 trillion economy to even
service these debts
for much longer.
As I have written frequently, U.S. interest rates are
frozen at 0%, because this deadbeat economy is so
that even a 1% increase in interest rates would instantly send the U.S. economy into a deflationary death-spiral. With $60 trillion in
public and private debt, a 1% increase in U.S. interest rates would drain an
extra $600 billion in
out of the U.S. economy – every year
an amount of capital equal to nearly the entire Obama “stimulus package” – every year. It would result in an immediate plunge in U.S. GDP of roughly 5%, even before all the “multipliers” went to work as that capital was subtracted. Indeed, I wrote a previous commentary demonstrating how a 0% interest rate
that the U.S. dollar is
We arrive at the following parameters:
The supply of dollars has been ramped-up to all-time highs at the same time that demand for dollars has totally collapsed.
The combination of a totally unmanageable mountain of debt and interest rates which are permanently frozen at 0% mean that the “fundamental” value of the U.S. dollar has already sunk to zero.
U.S. hyperinflation will begin as soon as “the sheep” lose confidence in the value of the (worthless) dollar.
It is at this point that we can now analyze why the U.S. is more vulnerable to hyperinflation (and will be harmed much worse by it) than any other Western economy. While the U.S. has previously only experienced the benefits of having the world’s reserve currency, it has now brought itself to the point where it will experience the drawbacks of that role.
Being still the primary vehicle for international commerce, as well as the currency in which the world’s largest debts are denominated, there is somewhere in excess of $6 trillion in U.S. dollar holdings in the hands of foreign entities – either in the form of U.S. Treasuries, or dollars themselves. This means that while most episodes of hyperinflation throughout history have been driven by a domestic collapse in confidence, because of the vast numbers of U.S. dollar instruments held outside the country, the U.S. could suffer a currency-collapse (and the resultant hyperinflation) from either a loss in domestic confidence in the dollar or a loss of foreign confidence.
Because the bankers have already driven the value of the dollar to zero based on two separate fundamentals (complete insolvency and excessive currency-dilution), the “crisis of confidence” which leads to U.S. hyperinflation can also be due to either fears of insolvency or merely the consequence of excessive dilution (i.e. too much money-printing). Thus there are already four possible “triggers” for the collapse of confidence which leads to U.S. hyperinflation.
This is only half the “horror story” regarding the implications of hyperinflation for the U.S. economy, however. In the world’s most recent experience with hyperinflation: the collapse of Zimbabwe’s currency, obviously the domestic population of that nation has suffered greatly. What has substantially mitigated the suffering was the availability of a substitute currency to use in the “blackmarket” economy which inevitably arises when a nation experiences hyperinflation. Ironically, the substitute currency which has lessened the devastation of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe is the U.S. dollar – the reserve currency.
The obvious question then becomes: what will Americans do for a substitute currency once the U.S. dollar has “greater value” as toilet paper than as money? The answer is “no one knows”. Certainly the (relatively) small amounts of gold and silver currently being held and accumulated by Americans is a partial answer – but only a partial one.
There is far too little bullion available for circulation in the U.S. economy to allow it to function in any remotely normal manner. Much like the Japanese economy became totally disrupted when the earthquake/tsunami destroyed vital infrastructure (and supply chains), the collapse of the U.S. dollar would have a similar (but much worse) impact in disrupting U.S. commerce.
Once the suppliers of raw materials and other goods to the U.S. economy stopped accepting U.S. dollars as payment, U.S. businesses would have no way to keep that flow of goods coming. Industry would shut-down. Retailers would close due to a lack of goods on their shelves, so even if Americans wanted to “barter” for the necessities of life, they would quickly find retailers closed – and those few who retained any stock would a) charge exorbitant prices; and b) would likely only accept gold or silver as payment.
The problem for the U.S. economy in this scenario is that its own collapse would certainly threaten the solvency of the Euro zone, and the “Euro” is the only other currency with both the status(?) and a large enough supply to be usable as a valid substitute in the U.S. The question is whether those businesses inside the U.S. who had stopped using dollars would be any more receptive toward another form of un-backed banker-paper (of highly questionable worth)?
The Canadian dollar would also offer a partial solution to the U.S. However, while the CAD may be viewed as less risky than either the USD or the Euro, once again the problem of insufficient supply arises. With the U.S. economy being (at the moment) ten times as large as Canada’s economy, there simply isn’t a large enough quantity of such currency to function as a surrogate for the U.S. economy.
The U.S. economy is careening toward hyperinflation. The U.S. government is either oblivious as to what is happening, powerless to do anything about it , or both. The only way for ordinary Americans to cushion the shock of what lies ahead (in addition to stocking-up on “necessities”) is to accumulate as much “physical” gold and silver as possible.
At that point Americans will only be able to hope that the U.S. government doesn’t repeat what it did during the Great Depression – and once again confiscate the gold and silver of Americans…
Written by Jeff Nielson
Monday, 30 May 2011 14:28
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