Trioil is a fairly new little oil company. It was recapitalized on January 13th, out of some company called One Exploration. They have about 25M shares outstanding. Very little debt at $5M.
For a company their size, they have a pretty decent land position in a number of the "hot" fields. First there is the Cardium, where it looks like they have more then 57 net sections after the closing of 17 sections announced friday. Those 17 additional sections that they just bought came at a price of close to $1400/acre. Land is not cheap in the Cardium anymore. Still, that's less then some of the $3000/acre numbers I have heard. I think that they got the land a little cheaper because the area (Lochend) hasn't been proven out to the extent that Garrington or Pembina has. But that will happen shortly. I know that both Enterra and NAL are drilling cardium wells at Lochend. I will be keeping my eye on those companies for results, as a good well or two in the area will likely give the share price of Trioil a boost. With 57 net sections of Cardium land, at 2 wells per section and an NPV $3M per well, that is a $14/share unrisked upside potential.
Along with the Cardium, the company has a land position in Tableland Saskatchewan, where they are drilling into the Bakken. They aren't the operators in Tableland (they are for most of their Cardium land), and the WI is low (30%), but they still have a decent sized acreage position net with 25 net sections. Tableland is further along then the Cardium - they are in the process of drilling 6 wells and have one well producing already. The company expects to drill 3 wells per section, which gives an unrisked NPV of $10/share assuming $3M per well. (Keep in mind that these unrisked NPV numbers will not necessarily come to fruition and they are super rough valuation numbers. I am in no way saying that Trioil is worth $14+$10 per share right now. The unrisked NPV is assuming 100% success, which most certainly won't happen and that each well is worth $3M, which may be high or low, its too soon to tell. But I try to consistently use unrisked NPV because it seems the simplest way to evaluate the comparative upside potential of companies with leverage to these new plays)
I think that these guys might be partners with a company called Nuloch, who has been pushed by some savvy oil investor types on the other website. I can't be sure, but if you look at Page 7
of the latest Trioil presentation, and Page 14
of the Nuloch presentation, there is a lot of overlap in the colored sections. Maybe there is success to be announced soon?
At Tableland they are drilling into the Bakken and Sanish formations. Nuloch has one well drilled in the area that is producing right now. It is averaging 200boe/d. That's not too bad, and if more of the land is drilled out prospectively you could start to apply those numbers more definitively to the share price. We'll know soon enough how this area is going to play out.
With current production of 1,400boe/d (50% oil), they aren't cheap on a flowing basis ($90K/flowing boe), but you aren't buying the company for what they've already drilled. The production should, however, help them generate enough cash that they can complete some of the opportunities without too much dilution.
The only negative I've heard about the company is that management was apparently the same that was involved in a company called Bear Ridge. I guess that they didn't do a great job running Bear Ridge and a lot of folks were burned. Something to consider.