Real Estate and REITs – Q4/09 Preview
Earnings slump expected to continue; Negative 8% "Trend-Line" earnings growth expected for Q4/09 – RBC CM expects its REIT/REOC universe to generate "trend-line" earnings growth of approximately -8% in Q4/09. If RBC CM’s forecasts prove accurate, this would be the biggest quarterly decline on record, and would bring RBC CM’s full-year 2009 trend-line earnings decline to -1%. For 2010, RBC CM expects a further -1% decline, with a return to the plus side in 2011, with trend-line earnings growth forecast at +2%. On this basis, RBC CM’s 2011 outlook remains tempered, relative to 2007 and 2008 trend-line growth figures of +7% and +5%, respectively. For more details, please refer to the full note for NAV tables and reporting dates.