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Number Cruncher
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Analysts see big risks or no upside for these stocks


Steve Ladurantaye
The Globe and Mail
June 3, 2009


Let’s look for stocks that are trading above analysts’ targets.

Either the analysts have to catch up with their price targets, or they may know something the rest of the market doesn’t – and investors should take notice and perhaps sell the stock.

MORE ABOUT THE SCREEN

This screen is similar to Monday’s, but this time we’ll use Thomson Financial to screen for the largest percentage difference between the stock price and analysts’ price targets. Stocks had to have a minimum market capitalization of $250-million and be listed in Canada.

It was tempting to screen for stocks with coverage by at least three analysts, and therefore have a true median price target from at least a small group of analysts. However, we didn’t do that so as not to exclude the lone-wolf analyst with a great recommendation.

WITH THESE STOCKS?

Monday's screen was a good example of why you need to treat some information with a measure of suspicion, with analysts showing a target price on Uranium One that was about 36 per cent above its stock price. That could have been seen as a buy sign, but it was more likely a case of analysts not yet changing their targets after an unexpected skirmish with the government of Kazakhstan helped cut the company’s share price by 40 per cent in the past week.

Again, investors are urged to dig in and do more research on stocks in this screen, as the analysts might be stubbornly wrong, be too biased toward investment banking clients, or may just have outdated price targets. On the other hand, there might be a strong warning in here, too.



Difference between analyst estimates and actual price

.

Stock Ticker Median $
Price Target
$ Price
June 1
Price target
% diff
from price
Mean
Recommendation
(1-5; 5 is lowest)
52-wk
high $
52-wk
low $
Market cap
($-mil)
North Am. Palladium PDL-T 1.43 3.03 -52.8 4.00 5.94 1.14 263.1
Newmont Mining NMC-T 37.55 52.26 -28.2 3.00 59.60 27.14 2,920.0
Freehold Royalty FRU.UN-T 11.50 13.46 -14.6 3.00 24.40 6.87 666.2
Inmet Mining IMN-T 42.25 46.59 -9.3 3.13 72.50 12.15 2,249.5
AGF Mgmt AGF.B-T 12.13 13.09 -7.4 3.10 25.40 6.74 1,161.5
Pengrowth En. PGF.UN-T 9.00 9.70 -7.2 3.14 21.16 5.84 2,500.8
Bank Of Montreal BMO-T 42.00 44.95 -6.6 3.38 51.74 24.05 24,499.8
Harvest Energy THE.UN-T 6.75 7.20 -6.3 3.70 25.77 3.87 1,162.9
Sprott Inc SII-T 4.50 4.80 -6.3 3.50 10.06 2.32 720.0
Penn West Energy PWT.UN-T 15.00 15.89 -5.6 3.15 35.60 8.82 6,582.1
Cdn Westn Bk CWB-T 14.00 14.77 -5.2 3.00 26.80 7.52 937.7
Ensign Energy ESI-T 16.50 17.30 -4.6 3.23 24.85 8.73 2,649.2
Bank Nova Scotia BNS-T 37.50 39.23 -4.4 3.31 52.51 23.99 38,915.9
Canfor CFP-T 5.15 5.34 -3.6 3.33 11.10 4.38 761.4
Imperial Oil IMO-T 45.00 46.27 -2.7 3.18 62.54 28.79 39,277.8
Reitmans Ltd RET.A-T 13.00 13.19 -1.4 3.00 18.66 8.09 736.2
Gaz Metro LP GZM.UN-T 14.50 14.70 -1.4 3.40 16.30 10.63 1,770.6
BMTC Group GBT.A-T 20.00 20.25 -1.2 3.00 20.64 15.02 329.9
Rogers Sugar Inc RSI.UN-T 3.50 3.51 -0.3 3.00 4.73 2.84 306.5
Leon's Furniture LNF-T 10.00 10.00 0.0 3.00 13.00 7.75 706.9
Source: Thomson One





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