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Telephony - Smartphone
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Were Apple to launch a low-end iPhone at $99, Abramsky contends, the company could sell 20-30 million units in fiscal 2010, boosting demand by 25%-69%, and lifting Apple’s global smartphone market share from an estimated 12% to 14%-19%.

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News, analysis and insights on technology investing from Barron’s Silicon Valley bureau.



February 10, 2009, 1:34 pm
Apple: Assessing The Impact Of A Low-End iPhone
Posted by Eric Savitz


RBC Capital analyst Mike Abramsky this morning wrote a research note assessing the impact on Apple (AAPL) from the introduction of an “entry level” iPhone. Now, I would point out before I dig in here that Apple has not actually announced plans for a cheaper version of the iPhone; and I would also note that Abramsky has an Underperform rating and $70 price target on the stock. (And the call has not worked out very well; he turned bearish January 15, and the stock has since rallied impressively.)

Abramsky contends that “checks reveal” further details on the company’s plans, with a launch on existing carriers in the June/July period. (He also expects an upgraded version of the iPhone 3G.) Were Apple to launch a low-end iPhone at $99, Abramsky contends, the company could sell 20-30 million units in fiscal 2010, boosting demand by 25%-69%, and lifting Apple’s global smartphone market share from an estimated 12% to 14%-19%.

But he also contends that a cheaper phone would also be a less profitable phone, particulary when you consider likely cannibalization of both the iPod and the iPhone 3G. He calculates that blended gross margins for the iPhone segment could drop to the 35%-37% level, from 50% plus currently. And given both lower margins and the cannibalization issue, he says the revenue impact in 2010 could range from positive 2% to negative 2%.

One key question, he adds, will be distribution strategy for a new cheaper iPhone. Were the company to expand beyond existing carriers, the economics “become more attractive.” But he notes as well that the arrival of a $99 iPhone could make it difficult to sustain iPod momentum without a price cut.

In a sharply lower market, Apple today is down $4.59, or 4.5%, to $97.92.



http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2009/02/10/apple-assessing-the-impact-of-a-low-end-iphone/

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Apple: the good and bad of a $99 iPhone
Posted: February 10, 2009, 10:40 AM byJonathan Ratner

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2009/02/10/apple-the-good-and-bad-of-a-99-iphone.aspx

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RBC Analyst Claims $99 Entry-Level iPhone Coming (Again)
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Rumors of the $99 iPhone Come Back Again
Tuesday February 10, 2009 2:37 PM CST - By: Michael Kwan

http://www.mobilemag.com/content/100/340/C16939/

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