update 5/7 (see next blog entry on 5/6 as we noted pm stock weakness and likely dip in gold, which is following through this morning 5/7)
We're seeing a lot of intraday strength in select gold stocks, which portends a follow on pop as the metal finds its legs in the current gap area. Let's look at a couple of PM stocks. We also look at Nat Gas and coal. (right click "view image" on charts to expand them)
FNV - Bullishly flagging above 4/12/13 resistance area. Short term support now at midpoint of wide range green bar on 4/24. Very good situation here as FNV reasserts leadership.
NEM - Frequently, earnings gapdowns on majors indicate it's more appropriate to short the GDX. Sometimes, which appears to be the case today, it's just an opportunity to buy more stock before a rally. NEM has been flashing green all morning after taking a haircut on earnings yesterday. Still plenty of downside on gold, but this is a bullish flash .
NSU - Has held up well throughout the past month and putting in a green body today. Another sign that money is moving into stocks as GLD floats lower
GSS - May be ready to pop when gold fills a gap
IAG is also about to go green today.
COG - Cabot has been the bellcow of the nat gas sector. Unconsolidated breakout ramped up into the most recent momentum channel and now has a mature h / s top in place. No gaps above, except for today's open - ripe short sale opportunity. Time to become "the man who loves the KOLD."
/qg , nat gas front month.
This month's mini-double top fits a 261 fib project off last year's mega-lows. Unconsolidated run looks like it could easily drop to $4 on seasonal selloff. There're also several more support areas to look at all the way down to the breakaway gap that started this latest run from $3.25
update 5/2/1/13 ... looks like the world is warming, time for nat gas to drop 30% in a week
update 5/2/13 ... KOLD ... definitely the man who loves the kold today. 20% move in 24 hrs. Not usually a fan of these contangoed leveraged ETFs, but they work for a short time at reversals of extreme overbought / oversold conditions. Shorting BOIL is perhaps a better way to play a nat gas drop, but may not be doable in some situations. Well on the way to targets in the 3.87 to 3.93 /QG area.
COAL - Someone forgot to tell the globalists in China that coal combustion is going to kill us all. Coal stocks are double bottoming from last year's Romney rally and look good again for a trade on any further dips.
ANR has been showing some relative strength in the sector.
OXF - Any dip under $3 looks well supported