1 year already??
It's hard to believe it has been almost one year since I wrote my last blog entry. I haven't had alot of things to say, I've just been riding the wave since last year.
It seems as though the junior market (my fav) has lost it's liquidity, for now anyway. It seems odd for this time of year but it seemed as soon as March hit, the lovefest was over, or having a rest anyway. Last year, September on, was obviously a very very nice run. It was my best year ever last year in the markets. We will see how this year turns out.
I looked at the 10 year chart on the Venture and the volume we saw last fall was the largest this market has ever seen. We had record attendance at both Vancouver and Toronto's resource shows. So why the lack of interst/buying now? Well, just an opinion but maybe all of the "new money" is waiting for their turn in the sun. There was a rash of financings last year especially late in the year. Maybe since that money is just being put to work now, the fall will bring in results that new/current investors are waiting for. One thing is for sure, companies had better do what they say they will do or they will go nowhere. As I have said in recent past, the "area plays" where companies rush to lock up land beside a successful peer, then wave their hands saying hey look where we are, watch their stock price soar higher for a day or so, are gone. Today's market expects management to execute a business plan. If they don't, well, there seem to be many others that are and will.
I will go out on a limb here today with another prediction. I predict that we will see record high for the TSX this year. Not without it's waves and bumps though, but I believe we will get there and then some. I believe the Venture will get close to old highs as well.
The only major issue I can potentially see right now is high oil prices. If it pushes higher (most of it spec) it will cause another recession. I do think it will drop from here though unless something catastrophic happens. God only knows what that could be though. Just look at all of the adversity the world has seen since the crash:
- near miss nuclear disasters
- Europe again
- and since there is no other places to focus right now, Europe again!! coming soon.
- oil well blow outs
and on and on it goes. Yet the world survives and continues onward.
One thing I learned last year was all about human resiliency. I toured some of the World War zones in Europe and into the Asia areas and where there have been numerous wars and natural catastrophes, and all of these areas thrive today. I was in awe at this. I believe this is why North American media and financial "experts" don't really understand what is happening with gold and silver, and base metals etc. Basically, there is more to the world than NA if they would only get out from behind their desks.
I saw areas that had been completely obliterated by war, but yet today you would never know anything happened. I believe that no matter how bad our politicians screw things up (they always will), the world will go on regardless.
Speaking of pm's and metals, I did very well on silver stocks, especially IPT _ Impact Silver. I am out for now as it rests but may look at it again.
I am dabbling in STM for uranium, and one that bears review, and I currently own, is CMA - Cream Minerals (SILVER). It was subject to a takeover attempt last fall by 2 suitors. BOth failed and it put CMA on the radar. They raised some funds and are now turning two drills on their flagship Mexico silver properties. Sprott is involved and so is Pinetree capital in a fairly large way. Still under the radar it seems. If the management style of CMA hasn't changed though (meaning lack of it), there may be no hope other than another takeover attempt for shareholders. I don't care what anyone says, you can have a great property, but with crap management, forget throwing your money at it.
Anyway, I will try to write more but as I said, not much exciting these days. I have been more of an observer than talker this last while. It's why we have to ears and one mouth, so we can listen twice as much as we talk.