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Could come back to haunt the stock

Late last week, Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK, Stock Forum) was downgraded to "neutral" from "overweight" by analysts at Simmons & Co. From a broader perspective, the negative analyst attention could prove ominous for the commodities concern, considering the security's unimpressive performance on the charts and bullishly biased sentiment backdrop. 

Technically speaking, the shares of CHK have surrendered roughly 20% since the start of the year. What's more, the security has underperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 13% during the past 60 sessions, echoing the stock's status as a broad-market laggard. Now, the shares are testing support in the $20-$20.50 neighborhood, which has contained CHK's pullbacks since mid-May. However, any rebound attempts could be rejected by the stock’s 10-week moving average – a trendline that’s stifled the majority of the equity’s recovery efforts since early March. 



 Plus, any rebound attempts could also face potential options-related resistance in the $21-$22 region, as the September 21 and 22 strikes harbor more than 23,000 calls combined. 

Despite the stock’s technical troubles, though, Zacks reports that CHK harbors 18 "strong buys" and five "buy" ratings, compared to 12 lukewarm "holds" and only one "sell" or worse recommendation. In the same vein, Thomson Reuters deems the consensus 12-month price target on the equity at a towering $31.86 – representing a steep premium of about 59% to the stock's closing price of $20.83 on Monday. 

In conclusion, should the shares of CHK continue to struggle on the charts, the high hopes among the brokerage bunch could come back to haunt the stock. A weekly close south of round-number support in the $20 area would place the stock in territory not explored since mid-July 2009, and could trigger a flood of additional negative analyst notes. 

Disclosure:  Andrea Kramer has no financial interest in any of the equities or products mentioned in this column

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrea Kramer, Schaeffers Research

 
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