An upside breakout is a low-odds proposition
It's hard to stay bearish.
Everything I look at tells me it's right to stay on the short side of the market. But it's been that way for six weeks, and so far it hasn't worked.
It hasn't worked to be bullish, though, either.
Anyone who turned bullish back in early May is suffering the same frustration. The S&P 500 closed at 919 last Friday. That's where it was six weeks ago. So stocks haven't lost or gained any ground.
It's the investor equivalent of purgatory.
At the risk of pressing my bet too far, I'll share with you this updated chart of the S&P 500...
A "head and shoulders" topping pattern is developing here. This is a bearish pattern and often indicates the reversal from a bull trend to a bear trend.
You can calculate the projected move by taking the difference between the top of the head (950) and the neckline (880) and subtracting it from the neckline (Here's how the math works: 950 minus 880 equals 70. Then, 880 minus 70 equals 810).
So if the index drops below the neckline, the intermediate bear trend is in force, and the pattern projects a move all the way down to 810.
Granted, a move down to 810 isn't exactly a disaster. After all, the index was at 670 just three months ago. I suspect, though, most investors didn't get on board back then. They likely bought in a bit higher, and a 10% correction right here will wipe out most of their gains and quite possibly put them underwater.
On the other hand, if the S&P can move on and break out solidly above 950, then that action will invalidate the head-and-shoulders pattern, and the path of least resistance will shift higher. Given the multiple bearish technical indicators we've covered over the past few weeks, an upside breakout is a low-odds proposition.
It makes more sense to me to bet on the downside right here. That's been my story for the past few weeks, and I'm sticking to it.
Read more Stockhouse articles by Jeff Clark
