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Has logged a whopping year-to-date gain of more than 226%

Struggling energy prices have not been a problem for the alternative energy sector during the past several weeks. In fact, the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (NYSE: PBW, Stock Forum) exchange-traded fund (ETF) has rallied more than 14% since the beginning of November, despite a 10% decline in crude futures for the same time frame. Technically speaking, PBW has barely outperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a year-to-date basis, gaining 24.9% versus the SPX's advance of 23.3%. However, the ETF has begun to show signs of life during the past 20 days, besting the SPX by 3% on a relative-strength basis. What's more, the PBW has garnered steady support from its 10-day and 20-day moving averages during this time frame.

Within the sector, energy-saving LED manufacturer Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE, Stock Forum) has emerged as an outperformer, logging a whopping year-to-date gain of more than 226%. The security has bested the SPX by an impressive 36% from a relative-strength perspective during the prior 60 trading days, and has maintained a steady uptrend along support at its 10-week moving average since the start of 2009.

Currently, the shares have outstripped this intermediate-term trendline, and are consolidating into support at their rising 10-day moving average. CREE has not closed a session below this short-term trendline since Nov. 23. There is the potential for resistance in the 52 region, as the stock has struggled in this area since early December. Given the stock's sentiment backdrop, however, a convincing move above this area could be an indication that CREE is ready for its next leg higher.

One other concern for CREE bulls exists in the stock's open interest configuration. Specifically, there are heavy accumulations of both call and put open interest at the 50 strike in the December series of options. As December expiration draws nearer, we could see CREE pinned to this option-heavy strike as traders unwind the hedges related to these positions. That said, this heavy open interest all but vanishes in the January 2010 option series, and CREE should have smooth sailing higher as a result.

Turning to the stock's sentiment outlook, investors continue to stare in disbelief at CREE's impressive rally, and these bears could be forced to abandon ship very soon. For instance, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.77 ranks above 60% of all those taken during the past year, hinting at lingering pessimism among options traders. This negativity may already be unwinding, as CREE's International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.26 indicates that calls bought to open have outnumbered puts purchased during the prior two weeks.

Outside the options pits, short sellers are also placing heavy bets against a continued run higher from CREE. Despite a 7.7% decline in the number of CREE shares sold short during the most recent reporting period, roughly 6.6% of the stock's float remains shorted. As the security extends its rally skyward, this short-covering trend could gain momentum, thus creating a tailwind for the equity.

Finally, CREE also stands to benefit from a change in heart from the analyst community. Currently, 11 of the 22 analysts following the shares rate them a "hold" or worse, according to Zacks. What's more, the consensus 12-month price target rests at $49.93 per share - a discount of about 5% to the stock's current trading range near $52 per share. Any upgrades or price-target increases could provide additional fuel for CREE's trek higher.

Disclosure:  Joseph Hargett has no financial interest in any of the equities or products mentioned in this column.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joseph Hargett, Schaeffers Research
 
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Comments
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-South Florida Foreclosures Up 15% In November. Read more here- http://www.businessinsider.com/south-florida-foreclosures-up-15-in-november-2009-12 -Quarter in U.S. foreclosure plan late on payments. More than one-quarter of homeowners receiving help under a U.S. government foreclosure prevention plan are behind on their new mortgage payments, a Treasury Department survey has found. Read more here- http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0517257820091205
U.S. Foreclosures to Reach 3.9 Million in Second Record Year. Foreclosure filings in the U.S. will reach a record for the second consecutive year with 3.9 million notices sent to homeowners in default, RealtyTrac Inc. said. This year’s filings will surpass 2008’s total of 3.2 million as record unemployment and price erosion batter the housing market, the Irvine, California-based company said. “We are a long way from a recovery,” John Quigley, economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said in an interview. “You can’t start to see improvement in the housing market until after unemployment peaks.” Foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000 for the ninth straight month in November, RealtyTrac said today. Read more here- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a6aLuu9zxbcM
STOCK BEAR TO LAST UNTIL 2018 -U.S. stocks are in a bear market that may last until 2018 and benchmark indexes may set new lows, said Alan R. Shaw, the technical analyst who retired from Citigroup Inc. after 45 years with the bank and its predecessors
State Revenue ‘Nightmare’ Seen in New Budget Gaps, Report Says. New budget gaps totaling $28 billion have opened in 36 U.S. states since July 1 as recession-battered tax collections declined and health-care spending increased, the National Conference of State Legislatures said. The chasm marks the second consecutive year states will be forced to change course in mid-stream, and will drive spending to decade-low levels, the conference said in a report titled “Nightmare Before Christmas.” “Even if the recession is over, state budgets are in appalling conditions and are going to be that way for quite a while,” Corina Eckl, the conference’s fiscal director, said at a meeting in San Diego today. “For many states, revenue recovery is not even in the forecast.” Read more here- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aruNXiyTcgjA
Saga of shutting down banks in America. Read more here- http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/currency/Saga-of-shutting-down-banks-in-America-1835-1.htmlA deeper look behind the jobless numbers. Despite the upbeat report, long-term unemployment worsens. Within the vast pool of 15.4 million unemployed workers, a split is emerging: The number of long-term jobless those out of work six months or longer is growing, while the number of short-term unemployed is declining. The trend highlights a considerable challenge for the economy and policymakers: finding a way for the millions of Americans laid off last fall and early this year to get back to work. The data, buried in Friday's unemployment report, are stark: The number of Americans out of work for 27 weeks or more reached 5.9 million last month, the most on records dating from 1948. That's 18 percent more than just three months ago, when the total was just below 5 million. Read more here- http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34
The commercial real estate market is the big problem,” said James Barth, a former chief economist at the Office of Thrift Supervision. Office vacancy rates climbed to 13.3 percent nationally in the second quarter from 12.3 percent in the prior period, according to a CB Richard Ellis index. With the closings, 130 U.S. lenders have collapsed this year. Banks are failing at the fastest pace in 17 years even as the U.S. economy shows signs of pulling out of the recession. The unemployment rate fell to 10 percent from 10.2 percent in October, according to figures from the Labor Department. The number of failed banks reached 179 in 1992. “The unemployment rate is quite high, so unless there is a turnaround in sales you will see commercial real estate continue to suffer,” Barth said. Read more here- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adRrN41CGEDk or http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/04/news/economy
-U.S. Banks Take Losses on Short Sales as Foreclosures Soar. Drew Schlosser tried for two years to sell his three-bedroom Punta Gorda, Florida, waterfront condominium for less than he owed on its two mortgages. The deal only went through last month when Wells Fargo & Co. agreed to take a $165,000 loss on the loans. Read more here- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a_NoPFp0r8Y4 U.S. BANK FAILURES HIT 130 -AmTrust Bank, a Cleveland-based lender with $12 billion in assets, joined five other U.S. banks in being seized by regulators as companies buckle under the weight of commercial real estate losses.Closely held AmTrust collapsed alongside three banks in Georgia and one each in Virginia and Illinois, according to statements issued yesterday by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which was named receiver. The failures will cost the FDIC’s deposit fund $2.38 billion, the agency said
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John Williams of shadowstats.com interview: Hyperinflaton Special Report Update 2010. Listen here- http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2009/12/4_John_Williams.html
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China should increase the proportion of gold in its foreign exchange reserves to ensure the safety of its overall portfolio, an official Chinese newspaper said on Tuesday. The commentary, which was written by an academic and appeared in the overseas edition of the People's Daily, also said that a bigger holding of gold was a crucial building block for the yuan to become an international currency. Read more here- http://in.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idINTOE5B702F20091208?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
The new Iceland? Greece fights to rein in debt. Fears of default growasyears of profligacy come home to roost. Read more here-http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/30/greece-iceland-debtNational debt now above official debt limit... Obamasigns $1.1 trillion spending bill...How anyone can believe our banking system or indeed our nation's Treasury can survive the exposure of $24 trillion dollars, twice our GDP, is beyond me. We most certainly cannot, and when (not if) our creditors and lenders, including China and Japan, wise up to what's going on here the game will quite literally be over, perhaps as soon as "right now." A couple of market technicians have noted certain "patterns" in the market that have potential downside targets of zero. That sort of thing normally results in a loud guffaw from me - even though I'm bearish I'm not that bearish - I couldn't imagine anything short of global thermonuclear war, ala "Joshua", that could lead to such an outcome. Now 25 trillion
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