Risk indicators are pointing to a continuing rebound in the prices of private and public equities and some commodities. 

Prices of battered company securities are likely to rise for some time, hand in hand with the prices of commodities, such as metals. Please see ThomWatch thesis by clicking here. 

The risk equation, laid out to me by a former investment banker and now a specialist in exchange-traded funds, Craig Reisfield of Ridley Asset Management, is worth remembering: “When the dollar rises, the world is avoiding risk. When it falls, people are embracing risk. Oh, and keep an eye on that TED spread.” 

The TED spread’s gap between U.S. Treasury rates and those on Eurodollar funds increased to almost 5.0, a rarely seen (if ever?) crevasse that indicates how unwilling investors are to place their money and other holdings into risk-oriented strategies. The spread is back down to near 2.0, with much of the return to normalcy coming in the past week or so. Click here for a look at Bloomberg’s TED chart. 

The dollar part of Mr. Reisfield’s risk equation is short but goes a long way in explaining why the prices of precious metals often rise step in step with general equity prices. A falling dollar, he says from his California office (a cell phone with windows), demonstrates that investors are willing to mosey away from the perceived safety of U.S. currency and bonds and once again poke around emerging markets, small-capitalization equities and commodities for opportunities that increase wealth. 

Gold, silver, oil, platinum and so on are almost always priced in U.S. dollars.  One of the many reasons why commodities prices rise as the dollar declines in value is because investors are seeking risk. There are many other reasons in the twisted dynamics of commodities prices and, in particular, gold, which even sagely strategist Richard Russell is beginning to think might have governments pulling its price strings. (Russell, a kind of dean of newsletter strategists, is said to be rethinking gold manipulation theories.) 

In one development Friday, a Hong Kong newspaper reported that China appears poised to increase its gold reserves. The U.S. purportedly owns 8,100 tonnes of gold reserves worth US$188 billion. China’s reserves of 600 tonnes are worth US$14 billion. I would like to thanks my friend Chris Powell at the Gold Antitrust Action Committee for providing that heads-up. 

That’s it for now. See ThomWatch bullet points. 

Ticker Trax in queue 

On Monday, Stockhouse and I will present a free first edition of the new Ticker Trax By Thom Calandra. In that report, I will outline the intentions of the new service and present an interview with former William O’Neil & Co. asset manager Gil Morales. 

It has been many years since my last service, The Calandra Report, put me at center stage and filled my spirit with a tad too much enthusiasm for the art of buying and selling stocks. 

With the new Ticker Trax By Thom Calandra, I hope to repeat the success of my original subscription service, and I expect to follow every legal and ethical principle in the investment world. Equity values in major markets across the globe are likely to begin rising as mega-investors, flush with that rare commodity, non-leveraged cash, resume their risk-leaning searches for leading technologies, humans and services. Individual securities and strategies that represent small and mid-sized companies likely will stage a steady advance after two or more years of depressed values. 

If you would like testimonials from former subscribers who intend to take this trek across our planet in search of a handful of excellent securities, properties and strategies, and more that a few fine meals and sights, I would be glad to send the references along. 

Once again, thank you for the chance to do what I love doing most: sharing ideas with the garage loft investors who have made my career a beautiful, just a cherished thing. Ticker Trax By Thom Calandra will explore planet Earth and its long and winding paths for those few stakes that offer the prospect of excellent, in some cases cosmic, returns. It is for those who are entirely at ease with stratospheric levels of risk and fine dining tips. 

HOLDINGS: Thom’s cosmos of holdings is listed for free Stockhouse members on www.Stockhouse.com under the “portfolio setting” for user TCALANDRA. Thom receives no compensation from publicly and privately traded companies in exchange for his commentary. For more ThomWatch, please see Stockhouse and ThomCalandra.com. 

THOM’S STORY: For investors who profited from a meteoric rise of commodities, mining and life sciences companies, Thom Calandra acted as a beacon. Thom helped his audience find value in a quagmire of investment choices.  Thom co-founded and was the driving editorial force and spirit of CBS MarketWatch, MarketWatch.com and FT MarketWatch in Europe. As the voice of Thom Calandra's StockWatch and The Calandra Report, Thom fancied $300-ounce gold before that metal became an investment rage. Thom visited bioscience companies, metals mines and scores of thin-crust pie joints across the planet in a search for profit, fashion and pizze de trippa gorgonzola. Thom's novel PABLO BY NUMBERS was completed in summer 2008.