The two types of investors according to William Bernstein.
When it comes to witty quips of consequence, few are as clever as those from the 19th century Irish author Oscar Wilde. However, Wilde wasn’t all that wild about the world of finance. Unfortunately, when it comes to the world of finance…few economic theorists really shine when it comes to memorable sound bites.
Warren Buffett may be a financial genius, but he’s no Wilde. Take for example his sartorial idea that the markets are dominated by two investor personalities: Mr. Greed and Mr. Fear. To the point – yes – but not catchy; and certainly not worth quoting at a party.
As a side note, Buffett is going to play himself on an episode of All My Children – that could be noteworthy at a party.
But there is one great American financial theorist you may not be entirely familiar with who cuts to the chase. And I think it’s quite fitting in this day and age.
“There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know.” — William Bernstein.
How apropos.
Right now the markets are chock-full of investing sages debating whether or not we’re in a bear market...or even a recession. As though the declaration of either really matters.
Now, I’m not professing to know where the market’s going. I may even be counted among the latter of Bernstein’s flock of investors. So for the most part, I’ll just go by the numbers. Numbers don’t lie, after all.
First off, are we in a bear market and does it matter? One definition notes that a bear market is "a price decline of 20% or more over a 12-month period in a key stock market index from a recent peak."
One article I was reading noted that world shares are down just 2% for the year. In fact, world shares are up 14% since mid-March. Further, the U.S. recently reported lukewarm, not negative, results for the first quarter. As far as the numbers go, the U.S. is neither in a bear market nor recession.
A more general definition suggests that a bear market is "a prolonged period in which investments fall and is accompanied by widespread pessimism." In this case, sure, we’re in a bear market.
Since so many investors are waiting to hear from others whether or not we’re really in a bear market or not, few seem to be willing to rely on their own instincts. It appears then that most investors (or those that I talk to) are optimistically glum.
Whether we’re in a bear market or not – falling, or even stagnant, share prices always create anxiety. This can be tough for most; however, if you’re a seasoned penny stock investor, anxiety and uncertainty seem to be par for the course.
Where does the current economic climate leave penny stock investors? In a very unique position. And one that could make astute penny stock investors look very smart in years to come.
While most mid- and large-cap stocks are rooted primarily in fundamentals, penny stocks have the added pleasure of having a speculative value built into their share price. Right now, the speculative value has been taken out of many penny stocks.
Penny stocks will no doubt track along the larger markets, and should see a recovery over the next three to six months. With the speculative value removed from many penny stocks, now is a good opportunity to get involved.
As history shows, it’s always better to get involved when you think things will get better. Wait until some analyst on TV tells you the markets are in a recovery and you’ll have missed the boat. Wait until everyone is sure the markets are getting better and you’re running with the herd, chasing up someone else’s profits.