Stockhouse.com: Taking it to the street
Latest Broadcasts
STKH
Internet/Technology
V.UNR
BASIC MATERIALS - METALS & MINING
V.PTV
BASIC MATERIALS - ENERGY
TPIM
Healthcare
V.MNV
Natural Resources
V.TMM
Basic Materials - Metals & Mining
An excellent place to start your search for new investments!
add to favorites print

By solving their country’s problems, China's leaders are opening the door for profits.

Western investors have always had two major problems when it comes to China.

First, they just can’t seem to believe what they’re seeing - even after they’ve been there.

Second, even if they end up believing what they saw, they still can’t seem to make sense of it all. By that, I mean they can’t seem to put it into a usable perspective.

That lack of understanding has morphed into a full-blown misunderstanding. That’s why, for some, China represents a colossal economic train wreck that’s just waiting to happen, while to others the Red Dragon represents nothing but hope, progress and profits.

The truth, of course, is somewhere in the middle of those two divergent viewpoints - which is why every investor needs a China strategy.

Here’s the bottom line: What’s happening in China is simply too big to ignore. But it’s important to understand the risks and rewards before taking the plunge.

Let’s consider both.

The benefits and challenges of the Red Dragon

Short-term, there are a few risks to consider. For instance, inflation is running at a 10-year high, but the central bank has been tightening monetary policy in an effort to curb it.

There also are valid concerns that a slowing U.S. economy will derail China’s ability to withstand a U.S.-led global recession. And there are spiraling production costs that are seemingly set to squeeze the life out of China’s production lines which owe much of their competitive advantage to costs that are super low on a worldwide basis.

Longer-term, however, the proverbial "genie is out of the bottle," which is why we believe that every one of these risks is surmountable.

For instance, even though monetary policy has tightened significantly over the past 12 months, don’t forget the economy is still growing at a double-digit rate - and will continue to operate at that pace for decades to come.

At the same time, remove fast-escalating food prices from this equation, and China’s non-food Consumer Price Index (CPI) has nudged up less than 1%, which is hardly a blip on the radar.

As for the notion of a U.S.-led recession causing China’s economy to crater, well, we just can’t see that happening. Not only has China successfully diversified its own export markets so that it is less dependent on the United States, it also has taken steps to create domestic demand for China-made products so that it’s not solely dependent on Western buyers to be prosperous.

China’s not quite there yet judging from the fact that most Chinese consumers still go for Western "bling" - Money Morning Executive Editor Bill Patalon coined the phrase "The Baywatch Effect" to describe that desire - but understand that the time is coming when the Chinese will demonstrate a "Made-in-China" nationalism that’s not entirely different from the "Made in USA" mantra that until recently has been prevalent throughout the United States.

There’s also a worry that rising prices will overcome the benefit of cheap labor in the China market. That’s another argument we don’t buy - at least not in the long run. Beijing is playing it smart here: It’s begun moving factories and production deep into the country’s interior, where production costs and labor are still dirt cheap. China’s central government also is focusing on the necessary infrastructure - such as highways - the country will need to keep investing in to keep costs low and long-term profitability high.

In fact, when China gets into that "long run," we don’t see anything but bullish potential, especially when a few macroeconomic observations are thrown into the mix.

Let’s look at a few.

The lowdown on the long haul

We’ll begin with liquidity. China’s literally swimming in capital reserves at a time when we here in the United States are struggling to find any. China just last month announced that its foreign reserves had reached a record $1.68 trillion. Domestic savings, according to the long-time China experts at ICS Trust (Asia) Ltd., exceeded $5 trillion in 2007 and represents a savings rate as high as 40%. That stands in stark contrast to a negative U.S. savings rate, and the paltry savings we’ve got on tap.

Not only does this give China unparalleled flexibility in dealing with any potential slowdown - regardless of its cause - but it also provides that country with the financial firepower to spend its way out of a slowdown, which is a luxury that we don’t have, even with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s printing presses running overtime.

Plus, China’s also got what is essentially the Beijing equivalent of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal program. There are public works projects everywhere you look and, not including the projects dedicated to the Beijing Summer Olympic Games (which open in early August), these construction endeavors represent trillions of dollars in spending all over China and employ millions of people.

China’s central government also is making economic reforms at light speed. Ironically, both experts who spoke to our China investing tour group here in Hong Kong pointed this out - independently of one another. Kishore K. Sakhrani, who is a director at Hong Kong-based ICS Trust (Asia) Ltd., noted that Beijing is lowering corporate tax rates from 33% to 25%. And Professor BaoKun Gui observed that new futures contracts will help develop financial markets providing Chinese exchanges with much needed stability and flexibility.

And that’s really the key when it comes to China.

China has been far more resilient than Western leaders expected or businessmen forecast, thanks in large part to its leaders who are increasingly pragmatic and open to new ideas even as they tighten their communist party holdings.

Western investors who understand and accept that are ready for the next step - reaping profits from the greatest growth market on earth.

[Money Morning Note: Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald penned this financial analysis while leading an investment-research trip across China and into Hong Kong. Along the way, he’s been filing story installments for his series, "The View From China." Please click here to read the latest installment in that series, which is featured in today’s issue of Money Morning. After leaving Hong Kong, Fitz-Gerald was scheduled to stop in Japan before returning to the United States. If you are a serious student of China investing, check out this Money Morning offer that includes a free copy of China investing expert Jim Rogers’ new bestseller, A Bull in China.]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Keith Fitz-Gerald

Keith Fitz-Gerald is the Investment Director for Money Morning, as well as the Money Map Report and New China Trader. Fitz-Gerald has been recognized as a pioneer at using non-linear theory for market prediction, risk management and portfolio construction. His ability to call key markets events, such as the Internet bust, the oil boom, the Asian correction and the credit crisis is unparalleled. He was recently named a founding member of The Kenos Circle, an elite think tank that identifies economic and financial trends using chaos theory.

Money Morning is a free daily newsletter that delivers global news and investment advice directly to your inbox. Its worldwide research staff includes former investment bankers, international financers, emerging markets specialists and veteran financial journalists who report on profit opportunities that you won’t read or hear about anywhere else. Money Morning extensively covers emerging markets, currencies, commodity plays, sovereign wealth funds, global energy, U.S. Federal Reserve, ETFs and many more topics that shape the world’s financial landscape. We exist to even the playing field; to help you reclaim control of your own financial destiny… at no charge. For more information, visit www.moneymorning.com

©2008 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

 
print
 
Stockhouse Conflict and Disclosure Policy:

Stockgroup Media Inc., owners and operators of Stockhouse.ca/com, has established rules to ensure that there is no appearance of impropriety on the part of any Stockhouse writers who discuss or name individual public companies in the content published on the Stockhouse websites. The content of Stockhouse Editorial articles are the opinion of the writer and any reliance on the content of these articles shall be at your sole risk.

Stockhouse Editorial writers may own, buy, or sell shares in public companies mentioned in their articles. Please be advised that a conflict may exist and that any investment decisions you make are your own responsibility. Additionally, our Editorial writers are not registered investment advisors. You should not make any kind of investment decision in relation to these articles or stocks discussed in them without first obtaining independent investment advice from a registered investment advisor.

Facts relied upon by our Editorial writers in arriving at their opinions are generally provided by the subject companies or gathered by our Editorial writers from other public and/or private sources. These facts may be in error and if so, the opinions of our Editorial writers may be materially different.

Rules applying to Stockhouse Editorial Writers

Stockhouse Editorial writers may own stock of any company they cover, but at the bottom of the article or within the article they must clearly and prominently state their ownership position in the company.

Stockhouse Editorial writers cannot solicit, accept, or agree to receive anything of value given or paid with the intent of influencing their editorial articles published on Stockhouse.

Stockhouse Editorial writers are not permitted to write articles that attempt to influence or benefit persons connected to the writer such as family or friends, , except where disclosure is made in the same way as if the writer him/herself owns stock.

Stockhouse notifies each Editorial writer about these rules but in case of a possible breach of our rules, we may not be in a position to find out or investigate the facts. We rely on the integrity of our writers to ensure that our rules are followed.

 
FREE REPORTS
 
SPONSORED NEWS LINKS
 
 
 
 
Today's Feature  
 
Border Petroleum Inc
A Canadian oil and gas company growing strong through North American asset development and exploration Border Petroleum is a Vancouver based company established in 2006. We are committed to supporting and increasing value within the North American exploration industry by finding prime properties and building them into producing assets. Our goal is to expand our operations in the oil and gas sector focusing on projects with great potential for success...