Netflix can benefit from oil prices, as the cost of driving to a video store often rivals that of a rental.
Normally, a company that hasn't done anything significantly different in its first five years of being a publicly traded company is usually a good candidate to short. While we don't discount the importance of being able to do one thing well, most successful public companies have to do several things well if they are going to grow in this highly competitive business world.
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX, Stock Forum) continues to deliver movies and does it better than anyone else. But should anyone invest in a company that only does one thing well?
Like James Posey and his three-point prowess off the bench, Netflix not only admits that delivering movies is its only offering, it takes pride in it. We find this a little troubling as we've seen the future of watching movies at home and it is Apple TV. Once videophiles can order movies via the Internet that have the same quality as Blue-ray discs, the need to go to the video will become obsolete. Or will it?
Many thought Netflix would shutter most mom and pop video stores and yet the ones in my town are still going strong even though their offerings are little more than the top 20 releases and haven't been remodeled since the day they opened. And even Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI, Stock Forum), who at one time seemed to be battling Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX, Stock Forum) for the biggest corporate eyesore award (the title now rests securely with Starbucks), has had to start delivering movies in the mail.
So why aren't we singing Netflix's praises and giving this an enthusiastic buy endorsement? Looking over the IR section on Netflix's site we notice in their section labeled growth strategies they offer "make the best product – and best consumer experience – even better." What product does Netflix make? Are we missing something? And where's the international expansion plan? The last time we checked countries like England, France, and Japan had postal systems and people that watched movies. After all, Blockbuster is in Europe, Asia, and Australia – why isn't Netflix making inroads in these countries?
For all its faults and questionable business strategy, we like Netflix over the next year. While tech:stocker knows many fans of the silver screen that subscribe to Netflix, we don't know anyone that subscribes to Blockbuster's service. We find some comfort in that along with the fact that Netflix's movie offering crushes Blockbuster (try ordering the controversial Italian film "Salo" from Blockbuster). And at a time when the cost of driving to the local video store is equal to the price of a rental, Netflix may be one of the few companies that is not named "Chevron" (NYSE: CVX, Stock Forum) that could benefit from higher oil prices.
If Netflix could improve its Internet delivery service (this is a service, not a product), this stock could become a solid long-term purchase.