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Takeover announcement renews interest in Canadian oil sands.

Equity markets in the U.S. have been trading essentially flat this morning, while Canadian markets continue to build on Friday’s late upward momentum. Friday’s trading may have marked a major turning point for equity markets sentiment. During the afternoon, markets attempted to sell off, but after testing or slightly dipping through key former resistance levels such as 12,800 for the Dow Industrials (US30 CFD) and 1,875 for the NASDAQ 100 (NDAQ100 CFD), markets quickly rebounded. Not only did this indicate that old resistance levels may have become new support levels, but that investors had enough confidence to drive markets back up heading into a weekend, which suggests that investors may be regaining confidence.

With limited economic or earnings news today, markets appear to be getting a boost from a number of significant takeover announcements this morning. Increased activity on this front not only suggests that some companies may be seeing value in the market, but also that the ability of corporations to raise the capital necessary to consummate such deals may also be improving, another sign that the worst of the financial liquidity crisis may be behind us.

In commodity action today, crude oil rallied through the $119/bbl level earlier this morning and then backed off a bit, while natural gas broke through the $11.00/mcf level. Crude oil appears to be advancing due to concerns over how long supply disruptions due to strikes in the North Sea or Nigeria may last. Natural gas, meanwhile, appears to be building off of last week’s better-than-expected inventory numbers through shoulder season.

Although precious metals such as gold and silver have attempted to rebound this morning, they have not been able to break through resistance levels at $900/oz or $17.00/oz respectively. This suggests that some of the speculative capital that ran gold through $1,000/oz and silver through $21.00/oz earlier this year may have moved on to other areas, and that some of the panic sentiment that had driven a possible flight to safety in precious metals may have passed. Based on this, it is possible that if some of the concerns supporting energy prices become alleviated, energy commodities could be vulnerable to a correction.      

Canadian share update: new interest in oil sands

A significant takeover announcement this morning regarding Synenco (TSX: T.SYN, Bullboard) appears to have renewed interest in the oil sands sector this morning. In early trading, Synenco has jumped 16.1%, Canadian Oil Sands (TSX: T.COS, Bullboard) has advanced 2.3%, UTS Energy (TSX: T.UTS, Bullboard) has climbed 1.6%, and Petro-Canada (TSX: T.PCA, Bullboard) has moved up 1.8%.

Total has agreed to purchase Synenco for $9.00 per share, a 22% premium to Friday’s close. Recall that Synenco and its oil sands assets have been on the block for some time and the company had already reduced staff and activity in anticipation of a sale.

Upcoming free seminars

In the coming weeks, Colin Cieszynski will be making a number of free presentations for accredited investors across Canada.


For more information on these and additional CMC Markets seminars, please go to CMC Markets Seminar Registration Page at http://www.cmcmarkets.ca/en/content/education/free_seminars.do

Upcoming educational webinars

In the coming months, Colin Cieszynski will be presenting a series of free webinars on trading for accredited investors from coast to coast. 


For more information on these and additional CMC Markets seminars, please go to CMC Markets Seminar Registration Page at http://www.cmcmarkets.ca/en/content/education/free_seminars.do

This commentary is based upon technical analysis. Technical analysis is the study of price and volume and the interpretation of trading patterns associated with such studies in an attempt to project future price movements. Technical analysis does not consider any of the fundamentals of an underlying company, and as such is inherently uncertain and should not be the only factor considered by an investor in making an investment decision. 

This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained in this commentary is intended as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. All opinions expressed are current as of the date of publication and subject to change without notice.

CFDs and FX are highly speculative and can involve a high degree of risk. Investors in CFDs and FX should be prepared for the risk of losing their entire investment and losing further amounts. Trading accounts are available to Accredited Investors only. CMC Markets will not open accounts except in jurisdictions in which it is registered or exempt from registration. CMC Markets is an execution only dealer and does not provide investment advice or recommendations regarding the purchase or sale of any securities. Investors are responsible for their investment decisions. CMC Markets will not determine an investor’s general investment needs and objectives or the suitability of a proposed purchase or sale of a security. CFDs are distributed in Canada by CMC Markets Canada Inc. as dealer and agent of CMC Markets UK plc. CMC Markets Canada Inc. is a member of the Investment Dealers Association of Canada and member CIPF. Contact us for further details.

Note that any references to CFD prices or price changes are sourced from CMC Markets' proprietary trading system Marketmaker™. CFD and FX Accounts are available to accredited investors only.

 Copyright 2008, CMC Markets. All rights reserved.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Colin Cieszynski, CMC Markets
Colin Cieszynski,CFA, CMT  is a Market Analyst and Manager of Education with CMC Markets Canada. Currently, Colin provides daily technical commentary on North American equity markets and selected commodities. Colin joined CMC Markets from Canaccord Capital, where he provided market commentary to individual investors for the last ten years and daily technical notes since 2001.

Colin has completed both the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician programs. He is a member of the Market Technicians Association, the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, the CFA Institute, the Toronto CFA Society and the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada. 

 

About CMC Markets

CMC Markets is Canada’s only online CFD provider and its affiliate, CMC Markets UK plc, was the first company in the world to offer online FX trading. CMC Markets UK plc has been offering CFDs and FX to Canadian traders through the services of CMC Markets since 2005.

Founded in 1989, CMC Group has 22 offices worldwide, including Toronto and Vancouver, employs in excess of 1,000 staff and represents clients in over 70 countries. Between November 2006 and October 2007, CMC Group handled over 16.2 million trades with a total value of over US $1.1 trillion, across the full product range. In December 2007, Goldman Sachs acquired a 10% stake in the CMC Group.

 
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